Category: ibkdmog

AVIC Sunda (000043): Restructuring pricing in line with expectations

Event: The company recently issued an announcement to determine the transaction consideration for its shares issued to acquire China Merchants Property. The final appraisal price was 29.

90,000 yuan, corresponding to 杭州桑拿网 China Merchants Property’s 2018 net profit of about 20 times PE; after the completion of the issuance, the company’s total share capital is 10.

With 600 million shares, China Merchants Shekou will become the company’s largest shareholder, holding a total of 51 listed companies.

16% of the shares.

Reconstruction pricing is in line with expectations, and there is still room for improvement.

With reference to last Friday’s closing price, the new AVIC Sunda Property Management business corresponds to 34 times PE for 18 years; China Merchants Property promises that the net profit for 2019, 20 and 21 will not be less than 1.

59, 1.

89, 2.

15 megabytes, under conservative considerations, the new PE of China Aviation Sunda in 2019 is only 22 times, which is a space for mutual replacement with the leading property management 杭州夜网论坛 company in Hong Kong stocks.

Considering that the company is a rare high-quality property management target of A shares, the company has reason to enjoy the evaluation premium.

The tube area approaches 1.

500 million cubic meters, the property management leader set sail.

At present, AVIC Sunda has investment management area of 76.44 million and 70.82 million square meters, and the combined management area is close to one.

500 million square meters, and owns the dual genes of residential and institutional properties.

After the reorganization, as the only listed property management platform of China Merchants Group, the new AVIC Sunda will definitely receive its strong support. The company will fully benefit from the strong strength and diversified portfolio of China Merchants Group, and will be entrusted to manage four shopping malls.The only thing is the beginning.

Various factors have driven profit repair.

In 2018, the net interest rates of AVIC Property and China Merchants Property were 4, respectively.

4%, 4.

9%, there is a gap in the net profit margin of listed property management companies.

With the completion of the reorganization transaction, the company will rely on China Merchants Group to improve the certainty of future scale growth. At the same time, the company will change the cost, brand center to the profit center of the subordinate housing companies, and use technology to empower and add value.The increase in per capita performance brought by the company, the company’s profit margin is expected to be repaired, the robe exceeded the original performance commitment target.

The progress of this profit repair has been verified many times in many Hong Kong stock listed property management companies.

Maintain the company’s buy rating, assuming that the reorganization is completed in 2019, and the performance of China Merchants Property is consolidated. It is expected that the company’s EPS in 2019, 2020 and 2021 will be 0.

46, 0.

65, 0.

91 yuan, corresponding to PE is 31, 22, 15 respectively.

8 times.

Give the company’s property management business 25 times PE for 20 years with a target price of 18.

5 yuan.

Risk warning: The profit repair is less than expected, and the incremental project delivery is too slow.

Zhongshun Jierou (002511): Profit Enhancement Channel Opened

Interim Report 19: The company achieved revenue 31 in the first half of 19 years.

7 ppm, an increase of 22 in ten years.

7%, net profit attributable to mother 2.

75 ppm, an increase of 37 in ten years.

6%, 42% increase after deduction.

Among them, the single and second quarter realized revenue of 16.

30,000 yuan, an increase of 19 in ten years.

9%, net profit attributable to mother 1.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 49 in ten years.

7%, increase by 50 after non-deduction.

1%.

　　Adjust the repurchase price: The company intends to change the repurchase price from no more than 13.

69 yuan / share adjusted to not more than 18.

81 yuan / share, the total amount of repurchase is 200-400 million.

Channel revenue maintained rapid growth: the company’s revenue increased annually in the first half of the year.

7%, of which single quarter income increased by 10.
.

9%, staying robust.

The four major channels of KA, GT, commercial sales, and e-commerce continued to develop strength. Among them, the growth of e-commerce and commercial sales channels maintained the rapid growth trend in the first quarter, and the proportion 合肥夜网 continued to increase. The KA channel continued to establish good cooperation with large chain stores such as RT-Mart.Relationship, and deeply explore the growth potential of key stores through direct management; GT channels continue to promote the sinking of outlets and the coverage of blank outlets, maintaining a growth of more than 10%; at the same time, the company has added new mother and infant and new retail channels to improve channel diversification.

In terms of products, the company’s high-end products continued to maintain high growth. The three series of face, lotion and natural wood grew at a rate of more than 30% in the first half of 19 years, and the overall proportion exceeded 65%.

Relying on channel expansion, structural upgrades, and new category expansion, we expect the company’s revenue to maintain a 夜来香体验网 steady growth of about 20% in the future.

Pulp prices continue to fall, with large profit elasticity: sluggish demand for wood pulp, coupled with high inventory levels, July offers for coniferous pulp in the outer disk ranged from $ 570-600 / ton, and broad-leaved pulp was priced at $ 520-540 / ton, of whichGoldfish parrot quotes have fallen to around $ 520 / ton, and pulp prices have fallen to historical lows.

Although the RMB exchange rate has recently exceeded 7, but considering the decline in pulp price breakthrough, the company’s cost side is still in a downward channel as a whole, and the cost pressure has eased.

As of the end of July, Qingdao, China’s main port, Changshu, Baoding Port wood pulp inventory 130, 78.

8, 4.

97 is the highest, which is an increase of 20, 14, and 2 indicators from the previous month. They are still at historical highs, and the short-term rebound probability is small.

Wood pulp is the company’s main raw material, accounting for nearly 60% of the cost. Tissue paper is used as a consumer product. The price continuity and the price elasticity of raw material price swaps give the company a contradiction in the profit elasticity.Recommendation: We raise our profit forecast and expect the company’s net profit for the years 19-21 to be 6, respectively.

300 million, 8.

100 million, 9.

700 million, an increase of 54.

8%, 28.

6%, 19.

8%, given a target price of 17.

36 yuan, maintain “Buy-A” rating.

Ren Zeping: The stock market rally more reflects the 11 recommendations made by loose liquidity

Potential momentum of the current epidemic in China’s economy, policy and capital market outlook Source: Zeping Macro was invited by the China Fortune 50 Forum.Define the internal theme: I will open my door and talk about the main judgments, as well as logic and evidence.

　　First, the overall judgment is that the impact of the new crown epidemic on China’s economy will be greater than that of SARS, and the time may be shorter. New cases outside Hubei Province continue to decline. Seeing that compared to SARS, the dawn of the government is gradually and more severe.

At present, new cases outside Hubei Province continue to decline.

We judge that around March, the epidemic situation except Hubei Province is expected to be basically over.

The impact on China’s economy in a quarter, February was negative growth, GDP growth in the first quarter was about 4%, 4% in the fourth quarter of 2019, about 2 decline, which is a basic judgment.

　　Compared with SARS, it can be seen that the new crown epidemic is more contagious and the case fatality rate has decreased.

SARS is the cause of more than 8,000 infections worldwide. China has diagnosed more than 7,000, with deaths of 685 and deaths of 9.
.

2%.

There are currently more than 70,000 new crown epidemics, with more than 1,800 deaths and a case fatality rate of 2.

6%.

　　From the perspective of the trend, around February 3 was the peak of increasing confirmed cases outside Hubei Province, and then it fell for two weeks. The trend is still relatively obvious, and the epidemic situation outside Hubei Province was gradually stopped.

The situation in Hubei has been an upward trend from January to early February. However, it has recently entered a platform period and is now slightly offset.

　　In the early days of the epidemic, it can be said that the army was defeated and the front line was chaotic.

But at the back, the central government went to war and quickly controlled the disease outside Hubei Province, and the epidemic situation in Hubei Province was gradually contained, and a good possibility appeared, dawn.

Tribute to frontline staff!

　　Second, the impact on the economy should not be underestimated. The return to work in the city is obviously repeated. Obviously, it resumes work one week after the Spring Festival.

The power generation data is relatively obvious. In the history, one week after the Spring Festival, there was a climax of resumption of work, but at present, after two weeks of the Spring Festival, the power generation is still at the bottom, indicating that our resumption of work is obviously prominent.

　　We look at the sales of real estate. Generally speaking, according to the past, there was a peak of returning home purchases after the Spring Festival. A large number of people returned from the first and second-tier cities to the third and fourth lines, and there was a peak of returning home purchases.

At present, the return to home ownership has basically failed. According to data released by Kerui, sales have plummeted by about 90%.

　　Judging by the volume of passengers sent by railway, civil aviation, waterways, and highways, it is clear that the return to the city and return to work are obvious locations.

　　Compared with SARS, the impact of the new crown epidemic on China’s economy is now somewhat divided, but everyone generally feels that the impact on the economy will exceed SARS.

The reasons are not complicated. The first is that the environment inside and outside the Chinese economy is different, and the pressure on the Chinese economy continues to decline.

Moreover, everyone knows that the epidemic mainly impacts consumption and has a certain impact on investment. We will see later that the impact on investment and production is relatively small compared to consumption.

Compared with 2003, China’s tertiary industry now accounts for 53% in 2019.

9%, an increase of 12 mergers over 17 years ago.

In 2003, we can see China’s economic growth rate, which fell by two probabilities in the second quarter, and rebounded quickly.

The trend of China’s economy is declining for ten consecutive years, and the downward pressure on the economy continues to be relatively large.

　　The impact in 2003 was mainly on transportation, accommodation, catering, etc. This time the situation was similar.

We can now see that the economic structure has undergone relatively great changes.

Because it mainly impacts the tertiary industry, it will be dominated by the secondary industry in 2003, and the tertiary industry will transform in 2019. Therefore, the impact of this epidemic on the economy will be greater than that of SARS, and of course it may be shorter.

　　We did three scenario analyses.

The first scenario is relatively optimistic. The peak appears in mid-February and basically ends outside Hubei in March, which mainly affects China’s economic GDP for a quarter.

The GDP forecast for the four quarters of each year is 4%, 6%, and 5.

8% and 5.

6%, 5 per year.

4%, this is the first scene.

The second scenario is to affect the Chinese economy for half a year, which is the end of June. The more pessimistic scenario is to affect the Chinese economy for three quarters. Currently we ignore the first scenario.
　　Third, from the perspective of the industry, the agglomeration service industry has suffered large losses. In trillions, employment is severe and severe. Agglomeration industries such as tourism, catering, hotels, transportation, and real estate have suffered a lot.
A rough estimate has been made that these severely affected industries accounted for 30% of GDP and employment.

Of course, there are some industries that benefit, some say medicine, online entertainment and online office, but the proportion is relatively low overall.

　　We simply calculated one by one, and we can see that some film, catering, and delivery, according to the available data, the three industries lost 1 trillion yuan in 7 days.

After the Spring Festival, according to big data, the employment situation is also relatively poor, and the employment trend will be severe this year.

　　Fourth, the impact on consumption is greater than investment, and investment recovery will be faster. Residents have a lingering heart about consumption. SARS is similar to this time in that it has a greater impact on consumption than investment.

The outbreak of the Spring Festival during the Spring Festival itself is the peak season for consumption and the low season for investment, so the impact on consumption may be somewhat.

We judge that the recovery of investment and production in the future will also be faster than consumption.

Residents will have time to gather consumption.

It can be seen that in the second quarter of 2003, consumption fell by a big pit, and investment was OK, but investment and production soon recovered, and the magnitude of the shift was not so great.

After the SARS epidemic in 2003, the recovery of investment, the recovery of production in the secondary industry is faster than that in the secondary industry, and the recovery of consumer products will be slower.

　　Fifth, the impact on prices will gradually ebb, but only in the short term at a relatively high interval just announced the January CPI data has increased significantly.

4%, mainly due to the surge in pig prices, the Spring Festival factors, and the epidemic situation.

We judge that the gradual recovery of shifting production and the ebb of residents’ panic, and the expected drop in prices may still be in a higher range, but it does not mean that it is gradual.

We still maintain our original point of view, and deflation is all we get out of pigs.

It can be seen that the core CPI without food and energy is only 1.

A 5% increase is in a reasonable range.

From July last year to December last year, our PPI has been in a negative growth deflation range for half a year.

　　Sixth, the large increase in the stock market more reflects the loose liquidity, rather than the deterioration of economic fundamentals. The meaning of the stock market comparison is because of the recent epidemic, the economy is not good, and all industries are affected.

However, the stock market rose sharply, and the GEM also hit a new high.

Our understanding, including the communication with the market, the large increase in the stock market more reflects the loose liquidity than the deterioration of economic fundamentals.

Especially in the context of low expectations of financial institutions for lending to enterprises and real estate restructuring, liquidity is chasing equity assets.

We have invested a lot of currencies, and put out 1.700 billion liquidity in the open market on February 3-4.

There are two facts that can be proved: one is that the growth rate of the GEM has exceeded that of the main board, and even some analysts say that stocks with fundamentals are afraid to push them; the second fact is that stocks and bonds have doubled, and generally, stock market debtThe market changes in the opposite direction, only in the same direction when the margin of flow is abundant.

These two facts indicate that the current market is driven primarily by liquidity and risk appetite, not fundamentals.

Therefore, we suggest that the function of the stock market to support the real economy should be brought into play in the future to prevent concept speculation and capital idling.

　　In my personal opinion, the recent two-council shooting is still more timely and professional, especially the normal market opening. I think that the rules of the market still need courage.

It can be seen that the latest liquidity situation was launched on February 3-4, two days after the launch.

7 trillion, of course, is short-term.

In terms of quantity, it is equivalent to 1.
.

5 demotions.

On January 1st, there was a RRR cut, and the base currency was invested 800 billion yuan, which is equivalent to two months from January to February.Recently, interest rates were cut through LPR and other methods. Today’s LPR is reduced by 10 BP, and the market is relatively liquid.

The yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell by 30 BP, and inter-bank market interest rates fell by 49 BP.

　　Seventh, the epidemic situation is entering the second half. The focus is on both the prevention and control of the epidemic and the restoration of production. We judged that the epidemic is entering the second half.Bail out businesses.

Currency cuts in interest rates and standards, short-term liquidity support, tax cuts, increased deficit rates, deferred payment of social security, etc.

It should be said that some recent policies of the central government are relatively timely and effective.

　　The next step should be to prevent and control by districts and levels, to prevent local governments from increasing the size of the market, exempting local responsibilities, and paying the bills.

This situation still exists to varying degrees.

We made a rough calculation, and you can see that the data is relatively clear. The number of confirmed diagnoses per 10,000 people in 20 provincial administrative regions of the country is less than 0.
1, that is, one in 100,000 can be clearly diagnosed as a low epidemic area, there are 20 provincial units, should be able to resume work in an orderly manner.

　　Eighth, orderly return to work, prevent the second spread of epidemic situation, the area of population migration must not be taken lightly in the future, the evolution of the resumption of rework and rework, Beijing, Shanghai, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong and other regional central cities, theseAreas where the population has flowed in must focus on prevention and control to prevent secondary spread.
Recently, everyone in Beijing has seen that some sudden situations have occurred, all related to this thing.

　　Explore flexible office work, shift to and from work, and work online to avoid cross-contamination of people.

Before the Spring Festival, 5 million people flowed out of Wuhan, mainly to places where it seemed that the epidemic situation was severe.

Years later, places like Beijing, Chengdu, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan, etc. are all a large influx of people, so in the next half to one month, these places cannot be taken lightly.

　　Nine, what we should do in response to the epidemic: reserve the project in advance, and vigorously reduce the tax on infrastructure after the epidemic. We recommend that you reserve the project in advance. After the epidemic, large-scale infrastructure and tax reductions should be made to fill the smashed economy caused by the epidemic.In particular, it is necessary to carry out large-scale infrastructure construction that is appropriately advanced in urban agglomerations and regional central cities.

Large-scale infrastructure can hedge the downward pressure on the economy, help stabilize growth, stabilize employment, and currently have low commodity prices and financing costs.

Historically, China issued special treasury bonds to strengthen infrastructure during the Asian financial crisis in 1998, and launched a 4 trillion investment with infrastructure as the core during the global financial crisis in 2008. Although it was very controversial and criticized at the time, it now looks significant.Significantly reduced transportation costs and enhanced the global competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing. It is necessary to look at the issue from the perspective of development.

　　China’s urbanization reform in 201960.

6%, and it is estimated that on average about 80%, China still has a lot of room, but the urbanized population will gather more in urban agglomerations.

We predict that when China ‘s urbanization rate reaches 71% by 2030, 80% of the 200 million new urban population will be concentrated in 19 urban agglomerations, and 60% will be in 7 urban agglomerations including the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.In the future, the rail transit, intercity railways, education, and medical infrastructure in the above areas will face severe shortages.

In areas with population migration, it is necessary to appropriately relax local debt requirements and not engage in a lifelong accountability system to promote large-scale infrastructure; however, in areas with population migration, we must treat them differently to avoid significant waste caused by large-scale infrastructure.

　　We now think that it may be unscientific to pursue debt for life, including a “one-size-fits-all” approach that prevents places from engaging in relatively advanced infrastructure.

It should be treated differently according to the inflow of the population and the occurrence of the situation.

　　X. In recent years, there have been frequent “epidemics” in the economic and social fields, and the urgency of reforming the deep-seated institutional mechanisms has risen. Some suggestions have been made in recent years. China has made outstanding achievements in the areas of government governance, haze control, deleveraging, precision poverty alleviation, and opening up.
　　However, we must reflect on it and see clearly that in recent years, we have experienced frequent outbreaks in the economic and social fields, and the economy has continued to decline. We have suffered stock disasters in 2015, Sino-US trade frictions in 2018, andThe private economy’s “departure theory”, the abnormally large increase in pig prices, this pig price has risen more than previous pig cycles, as well as major challenges such as the new crown epidemic in 2020, exposing problems in our policies and institutions.
For example, some policies are “one size fits all” and they are overweight, and private and SMEs are injured by mistake. Some reforms are progressing slowly, people ‘s livelihood expenditure is insufficient, scientific and technological innovation shortcomings, the lack of public opinion supervision, and disorderly social governance. These issues are worthy of us.Thinking deeply, the urgency of deep-level institutional reforms must be avoided, and fires must be avoided everywhere.

　　The last few suggestions: 1. From the aspect of the system and mechanism, the problems of the new coronary disease exposure, and many issues in the areas of open and transparent information, public opinion supervision, social governance, emergency management, medical technology, and people’s livelihood substitution, make us more sober, ChinaThe real gap between the governance systems and capabilities of advanced countries.

In the future, economic construction should be the focus, and more attention should be paid to people’s livelihood and people’s happiness.

　　2. Strengthen the openness and transparency of information, strengthen the supervision of public opinion, attach importance to the news media and the public, and the right to know major public events.

Establish the Whistleblower Protection Act as soon as possible to protect citizens from breaking news in order to maintain social justice and the public interest. Whistlers should not be charged with leaking or spreading rumors as long as he has factual basis.

　　3. Strengthen the construction of social governance system and local governance capacity, from “blocking” to “sparse”.

　　4. Vigorously supplement the medical shortcomings, increase the cost of medical staff, and increase the proportion of people’s livelihood expenditure in public health care.

　　5. Strengthen the construction of emergency medical system.

　　6. Optimize the way to reduce taxes and fees.

In the past, we also made a lot of tax and fee reductions, but the company’s gain was not strong.

The study found that it is mainly related to the way of reducing taxes and fees. In the future, it should mainly change from alternative reductions and exemptions to reducing social security contribution rates, corporate income and personal income.

　　7. Regarding the registration system as the starting point, improve the multi-level capital market and fundamentally solve the problem of financing of private SMEs.

　　8. In order to cope with the continued decline of the economy, use the reform method to steadily 厦门夜网 grow, and liberalize the basic industries such as automobiles, finance, energy, telecommunications, and electricity. Medical education should appropriately compete with new investment forces or foster a new economygrowth point.

Deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises, break through the neutrality of competition and the neutrality of ownership.

　　9. Reform of the housing system.

We have recently spent a lot of time studying the housing system and its housing market performance in typical international economies, such as the case of the United States, Britain, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Germany, and Germany.

The more we study, the more we find out that the key point we have now is that there are differences on the issues recognized by the housing system reform, and the fundamental problems cannot be solved within a few limits.

We summarize it as the word “Balman-land link, financial stability”, where people are demand, land is supply, and finance is leverage.

Real estate looks at population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term. These international positive and negative experiences and lessons tell us that people-land relations and financial stability are the keys to the reform of the housing system.

　　10. Mobilize the enthusiasm of local governments and entrepreneurs, give local officials a new incentive mechanism, and give private entrepreneurs a peace of mind.

　　11. To fully estimate the severity of the current economic indicators, the current price index is “deflation after removing pigs.”

The basis for short-term economic stabilization since the end of 2019 is not very consistent, so we recommend a prudent monetary policy, a proactive fiscal policy and vigorous reform and opening up.

　　If China can promote a new round of reform and opening up, with great potential, the best investment opportunities will be in China.
For example, our per capita GDP is now just around $ 10,000, which is only 1/6 of that of the United States.

Our urbanization rate is 60%, and there are still 20 years.
China has 1.4 billion people and is the world’s largest unified market.

China is still very active in innovation and entrepreneurship.

Therefore, after the Sino-US trade friction and experiencing the new crown epidemic, we should be more sober. The crisis is not terrible. The key depends on how we respond and whether we can turn the crisis into an opportunity.

AVIC Mechanical (002013) Company Review Report: Military Aviation and Defense Drive Overall Performance Growth

Investment Highlights Event: AVIC Mechanical and Electrical released its 2018 annual report and achieved revenue of 116.

37 ppm, an increase of 4 per year.

08%, net profit attributable to mother 8.

37 ppm, an increase of 16 in ten years.

49%, net of non-attributed net profit7.

12 ppm, an increase of 23 in ten years.

33%.

Military aviation and defense drive overall performance growth The company achieved operating income of 116 in 2018.

37 ppm, an increase of 4 per year.

08%, net profit attributable to mother 8.

37 ppm, an increase of 16 in ten years.

49%, net of non-attributed net profit7.

12 ppm, an increase of 23 in ten years.

33%.

In terms of business, 成都桑拿网 military aviation and defense are sufficient to realize revenue72.

8.3 billion, compared with 67 in 2017.

3.3 billion increase 8.

17%; civil aviation sales revenue3.

5 billion, compared with March 2017.

8.7 billion down 9.

66%; industrial manufacturing revenue 38.

62 trillion, a year down 0.

83%; modern service industry gradually realized sales income1.

430,000 yuan, compared with 1 in 2017.

6.7 billion down 14.

31%.

Overall, the military aviation and defense business has driven revenue growth.

In terms of expenses, the company’s sales, management, research and development, and financial expense ratios were 1 in 2018.

66% (+0.

02pct), 10.

09% (+0.

45 points), 3.

55% (-0.

13 points), 1.

82% (-0.

56pct).

The company’s deduction of non-net profit grew faster, but we believe that the growth rate of deduction of non-profit cannot reflect the endogenous growth of the company’s business.

It can be ground from the non-recurring income statement. The biggest change in 2018 compared to 2017 is the current net profit and loss of the subsidiary from the merger of enterprises under the same control.Therefore, the non-profit growth rate cannot reflect the endogenous growth of the company’s business. The increase in receivables caused the operating cash flow to be negative. The company’s operating net cash flow in 2018 was -9.

09 million yuan, down 140 from the same period last year.

45%, which is primarily for the sale of goods, and the cash received for providing services decreased by 19 compared with the same period last year.

US $ 4.5 billion, cash paid for other operating activities increased by 8 over the same period last year.

2.5 billion.

Judging from the supplementary information of the cash flow statement, it was mainly due to the increase in receivable items and the decrease in payable items, indicating that the company’s downstream customers’ payment speed has slowed down, and the company’s ability to occupy upstream suppliers has weakened.

Profit forecast: According to the annual report, the company’s economic goals for 2019 are: to gradually achieve operating income of 12.3 billion and a profit increase of 11.

5.6 billion, an increase of 5 each year.

70%, 6.

35%.

We believe that the company, as a leader in the domestic aerospace electromechanical field, has a solid industry consolidation, and the military aviation and defense business can drive the company to maintain a solid endogenous growth.

610,000 yuan, 11.

07 thousand yuan, 12.

7.7 billion, corresponding to PE is 27 times, 24 times, 20 times.

Risk warning: The development progress of military aircraft is less than expected; cash flow fluctuations of military industrial enterprises break through.

Yutong Bus (600066): Sales in September are affected by the penetration of new energy and competition continues to increase

Event: The company announced sales in September 2019, and the company sold 3,646 passenger cars in September (-38.

3%), 1?
The company sold a total of 42,140 passenger cars in September (+6.

6%).

Comments: 1. Affected by the penetration of new energy, the company’s sales pressure in September sold 3646 passenger cars (-38) in September.

3%), of which large, medium and light passenger cars were sold 1411 (-51.

8%), 1591 (-25.

8%), 644 (-23.

1%); 1?
Cumulative sales in September were 39541 (+6.

6%), of which large, medium and light passenger cars are 16655 (+1).

7%), 16627 (+12.

1%), 6259 (+4.

8%).

The company’s sales in September decreased mainly due to the time change of the new energy subsidy policy. The sales of new energy buses in July overdrawn the demand in September. It is estimated that the sales of new energy buses in September were around 1,000 (1928 units sold in the same period in 2018).The slippage of energy buses is a preliminary drag on September sales.

2. Logistics factors affect the confirmation of export orders in September. The long-term strategic stability of overseas exports. The company’s export strategy is very stable and is increasingly recognized in overseas markets.

We judge that in September, there were hundreds of exported vehicles due to logistics disturbances, and revenue has not been confirmed for the time being. The probability of the confirmation of this part of the orders will be transferred to October, which will cause a decrease in sales in September to a certain extent.
The company’s 19-year overseas sales are expected to be 7,600?
Between 8,000 units, the company’s high-end models for overseas markets are expected to be launched on the market from the end of 2019 to the beginning of 2020, at which time it will further open up the overseas market space and increase the level of profitability.

3. The market share increase 杭州桑拿网 logic remains unchanged, new products broaden the company’s revenue sources. The company actively researches and develops new products, enriches product categories, and opens up new markets. The company’s revenue may increase. In addition to traditional highway passenger cars, the design and development of new products by the public exchangeIn addition, high-end products such as T7 commercial vehicles, overseas high-end transportation, tourism, CL6 / CL7, and RVs are the focus of the company’s investment.

The company continues to expand investment in research and development, and it is expected to further widen the gap with segmentation in the future, and the market share is expected to continue to increase.

We judge that the company’s sales volume in October may be at a flat and slight growth level, and November sales volume 南京桑拿网 is likely to increase.

4. Profit forecast and rating We believe that the company’s continuous expenditure on research and development will ensure that the company is above the leader in the industry, widening the gap with relative.

In the future, the company’s market share is expected to continue to increase, and sales of high-end products will continue to increase, driving the company’s profitability.

The company’s advancement in RV and other fields will open up new market segments for the company, and overseas exports will open up more space for the company.

The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 1.

14/1.

30/1.

52 yuan, maintain “strongly recommended-A” rating 5, risk warning: passenger car sales are not up to expectations, overseas market promotion is less than expected

Suning Tesco (002024) Company Express: High base of investment income affects profit growth and expects profitability of small stores to improve
Incident company disclosed semi-annual report, revenue of 1355 in the first half.71 ppm / + 22.49%, achieving net profit attributable to mothers21.39 ppm / -64.36%, realizing net profit of -31 after deduction to non-returning mothers.9 billion.Earnings per share are approximately zero.23 yuan. The company achieved revenue of 733 in the second quarter.30 ppm / + 20.10%, realizing net profit attributable to mother 20.04 ppm / -65.99%, realizing net profit of -21 after deduction.9.9 billion. Key points of investment: Online appreciation of expected income affects revenue growth, high investment income affects profit growth: at the revenue end, the company achieved a 22% increase in operating income in the first half of the year, and the revenue growth rate in the second quarter improved, mainly due to onlineThe GMV growth rate was affected, and the GMV growth rate on the Q2 line decreased from 36% in Q1 to 20%.In the first half of the year, online games accounted for about 61% of GMV. Online changes will affect the degree of revenue changes.On the net profit side, the annual interval of net profit attributable to mothers in the first half of the year was 64%, which was due to the high profit base formed by the sale of Alibaba shares in the same period last year.In addition, the Suning shop released its balance sheet at the end of June. Without considering the business reorganization of Suning store and its revenue from the balance sheet, the company realized net profit attributable to its mother in the first half of the year7.610,000 yuan, net profit after deduction is about -9.7.7 billion. The online GMV grew faster than the straight line, and offline mergers and acquisitions of Wanda Plaza promoted the growth of GMV: online, the Internet dividend is approaching the end, and the high growth rate of online retail has improved.As of the end of the second quarter, the number of registered members of Suning Tesco’s retail system has continued to reach.4.2 billion people, an increase of 23 in ten years.8%, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.7%.In the first half of the year, Suning Tesco achieved an online GMV of approximately 11.twenty one.5 ppm / + 27%, of which GMV is about 797.0 ppm / + 26%, open platform GMV is about 324.600 million / + 31%.Q2 Suning Tesco achieved an online GMV of approximately 580.3 ‰ / + 19.5%, online GMV high-speed growth in the second quarter of the first quarter. Offline, the acquisition of Wanda Plaza expanded the store area, and accelerated the growth of offline GMV.In the first half of the year, the company’s Suning Tesco direct-operated stores closed on a large scale, reducing the number of stores (excluding Suning stores) at the end of Q2 by 667 to 4,037 earlier.Among them, there are 37 Suning Tesco Plazas (formerly Wanda Plaza), 1746 Suning Tesco Direct Stores, 2110 home appliance 3C stores, 172 mother and baby stores, and 9 supermarket stores.Due to the relatively small Suning Tesco stores, the area of Suning Plaza is relatively long. At the end of the first half of the year, the operating area of Suning’s offline business increased by 15% earlier to 6.94 million square meters, which promoted the offline GMV of about 720 in the first half of the year.1 ppm / + 14.5%, of which Q2 achieved GMV growth of 17.7%, the growth rate has been improved.Affected by the land cycle and the retail environment in the first half of the year, the 3C store efficiency of Suning Appliances decreased by 4%.9%, e-commerce retail cloud-operated stores reduced floor efficiency by 9.0%, and the maternal and infant shop floor efficiency 深圳桑拿网 increased by 24.7%. In terms of different categories, the category of small household appliances including department stores has grown rapidly, and FMCG products can help increase user stickiness.In the first half of the year, the company’s revenue from small appliances including small appliances, red baby maternal and child beauty, household food and other daily necessities increased by 67%. Revenue from communications products, air-conditioning products, white goods, and digital products increased by 0.9%, 17%, 19%, 7.5%, small appliances and department stores promote revenue growth.In the first half of the year, Suning Tesco gradually consolidated the supply chain of fast-moving consumer goods. According to Yibang Power Network, during the period of 618, Suning’s fast-moving consumer goods orders increased by 245%, and the total channel orders increased by 133%.The company intends to acquire Carrefour China, which is expected to further integrate FMCG resources and increase user stickiness and repurchase rate. Price competition strategy has gradually improved. Gross profit margin has been reduced, and the increase in investment income has increased the net worth. In terms of profitability, the company has actively engaged in price competition strategies and increased promotional expenditures on categories. The gross profit margin of major categories increased and decreased, and the gross profit margin decreased in the first half of the year.Down 0.39 points to 14.04%.In the first half of the first half of the year, the employee shareholding plan led to an increase in management expenses, comparable store reductions and rapid expansion of Suning stores to promote higher sales expense ratios, and rapid development of supply chain financing and consumer finance pushed up financial expense ratios. In the end, the company’s total expense ratioBoost 2.66 points to 16.55%.In addition, in the first half of the year, the company’s investment income from the Suning store was not as good as the investment income from the sale of Alibaba’s equity in the same period last year, and the company’s net interest rate fell.59% to 1.54%. Investment suggestion: Suning Tesco insists on the integration of online and offline development.Carrefour consolidated its revenue to boost its sales. Small stores and financial services plan to release their watches. The deduction of non-net profits may be expected to recover.Our company predicts that the annual revenue from 2019 to 2021 will be 1.79, 0.36 and 0.41 yuan.Return on net assets were 17, respectively.4%, 3.4% and 3.7%.Currently the company PS (TTM) is about 0.37 times, lower than 0 of Vipshop.45 times, maintain the “Buy-B” recommendation. Risk warning: M & A integration may be lower than expected; there are uncertainties in the expansion of multiple categories; and the effect of strategic conversion may be lower than expected.

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How to solve itchy skin in winter

Itching is a conscious symptom common to many skin diseases.

When the skin is itchy without other primary rashes such as blisters, pimples, it is medically called pruritus.

It has many causes, such as neurasthenia, endocrine disorders, diabetes, liver disease and so on.

　　Winter pruritus is more common in adults over the age of 40, and the lower tibia is particularly severe.

These people have weakened sebaceous glands and dry skin.

In winter, it takes a long time to bathe, uses more soap, and dries the skin.

As the temperature drops, the itchy corrosion begins.

　　Cold is the precursor of itching, while heat is the cause of itching.

Enter the warm room from the cold roof, wash it with hot water, lie on the bed, and start to itch.

Can’t help scratching it, but it often gets more and more itchy and more itchy.

This is because scratching can damage the skin, strengthen the skin’s reactivity, cause bleeding, leave pigmentation and mossy sclerosis of the skin, making the disease incurable for a long time.

　　Therefore, for patients who have had itching in winter, they should pay attention not to drink alcohol, not to eat spicy and other irritating foods, and do not use scratching, rubbing and hot water to wash itching.

When you feel some itching, absorb some creams or creams that have antipruritic effect locally. Do not scratch, wash and alleviate the symptoms, and gradually restore the skin to normal.

Modern Men’s Heart Disease

According to recent psychological research, the biggest threat of modern men is heart disease. This heart disease mainly has the following forms: 1. Feeling of loss Whether it is the ancient green forest heroes or the leader of Marlboro car races, they all struggle to get ahead.Psychology, I absolutely believe that my power must exceed others, and once defeated, it will often be pushed to extreme pain by a deep sense of loss.

At this point, they either fight to the “battlefield” and end their lives to prove their so-called strength, which corresponds to a theory: the strongest people are often the most vulnerable.

　　2. The marriage of the personality traits of the “difficult and stressful” man and the characteristics of the times gave birth to competition.

Being in a fierce competition atmosphere for a long time, it causes extreme psychological tension, depression and frustration, changes in emotional changes, and alternates torment, anger and sorrow.

Some men, when they cannot bear this kind of overwhelming mental pressure, often cannot catch themselves and lose control.

　　3, sad and depressed men are mostly “double-edged”, as half of the so-called men are women.

Even if a woman is pregnant and tears, and is sad for the moon, men will be moved by external events, affecting their emotional state, and will even be depressed for a long time due to the blow.

　　4. Drug-addicted men, once addicted to drugs, are often unable to extricate themselves. When they are thin and unable to support their bodies, people are almost going to be swallowed up by death.

　　5. Malformed men also have estrogen in their bodies. Once this estrogen accumulates too much in a man’s body, then this man will be particularly gentle and romantic, and can induce homosexuality in adulthood.

This malformed “love” is very stubborn, and some know that it is abnormal but difficult to stop, and let it flow freely, which provides an opportunity for transmission of AIDS.

　　Contemporary men should actively adjust their perspectives, improve their psychological endurance, take the initiative to participate in society, and achieve their careers.

Deal with women, do a superficial job

Asked her to come out for the first time, but went all the way.

Ride to the estuary and accidentally kill a passing chicken!

She said it was disgusting, and I also felt very sorry. She also lost a dozen yuan for the chicken-raising wife.

Then, maybe the chicken retaliated against me, and for the first time in 10 years, I blew my tire halfway.

It is far from the scenic estuary and fell on the path of the barren mountains and ridges.

I had to push the car back, both were very embarrassed, and it was too late to get home.

　　Before leaving, I asked, “Will you call me?

She yawned and said, “Wake up again.

“You say, do you still play?”

　　Poor tour guide: Haha, the chicken had no reason with you and no revenge, but it happened to be because of you.

Can this be regarded as an escape?

If you do n’t puncture late, do n’t puncture early, and choose a date that is not important for you, choose a place in the wild mountains and mountains.

If you hit a debt, you are destined to repay it.

Pay it off, it will be all day long, the number of robberies has passed, good thing.

　　So, would you be more comfortable?

　　Luck is gone.

There is no drama, you have to see if you want to go on.

Destiny is like a drama, which one you sing and what role you play, sometimes you can’t decide.

The orchestration of nature, may not be a comedy.

But sometimes tragedies are more powerful and more popular.

For example, earlier in the Sichuan earthquake, Zhang Ziyi dropped the rally team to raise funds, but Sharon Stone threw out the “retribution saying”, both of them played well on the stage of life.Seen from the pole.

　　Acting and acting must be “beautiful”, even if it is only “acting”, the surface effort often brings substantial benefits.

Women are most likely to do “surface” work, make-up, manicure, hair coloring, buying shirts, dressing up beautifully, at least, the chance of falling in love at first sight is more than the mean.

Therefore, women also value surface work the most, whether there is a “follow call” on dating, and they have said “I love you” several times . All of them must be scored.

　　Men take the initiative to make phone calls, which is one of the “surface work”.

You sit and wait for her to call, it is both unhelpful and anxious. Why not call and ask her if she was tired or sleepy that day, showing caring consideration and taking the opportunity to make another appointment.

With luck, you can come to a good ending.