Wanhua Chemical (600309): 2018 performance slightly declines MDI is expected to stabilize and rebound
Net profit for 20184.
7%, the performance is lower than expected Wanhua Chemical released the 2018 performance report on February 28, thereby achieving revenue of 606.
200 million, an increase of 14 in ten years.
1%, net profit of 106.
1 ppm, 10-year average of 4.
7%, performance was lower than expected.
If calculated based on the caliber of the overall listing, it will achieve revenue of 728.
400 million, an increase of 12 in ten years.
3%, net profit 155.
700 million, downgraded 1 year.
4%, follow 31.
The latest equity of 400 million shares (after completion of the overall listing) is calculated, the corresponding EPS is 4.
In terms of the pre-merger caliber, 2018Q4 achieved operating income of 147.
0 billion, with an annual value added of 3.
8%, net profit 15.
9 ‰, an average of 52 in ten years.
Based on the combined caliber, 2018H2 杭州桑拿 achieved a net profit of approximately US $ 4.8 billion, and we expect the company’s EPS to be 3 in 2018-2020.
30 yuan (according to the pre-merger caliber), maintaining the “overweight” rating.
The decline in the MDI boom affects performance. Q4’s single-quarter performance was obviously affected by the downturn in downstream demand and sufficient supply. According to Baichuan Information, the average price of pure / aggregated MDI in East China in 2018 was 2 respectively.
92 million / ton, temporarily decreased by 0.
4% / 29%, of which the average price of pure / polymerized MDI in East China in the fourth quarter of 2018 was 2 respectively.
260,000 yuan / ton, 25% / 57% each year, dragging down long-term performance.
In terms of petrochemical products, the lower average prices 淡水桑拿网 of cetyl / acrylic acid / ethylene oxide in East China in 2018 were 0.
84 million / ton, up 15% / 10% / 10%, even though Q4 oil price fell rapidly, but from the average price point of view, the East China residents bid / bid reduction / bid were 0.
93 million / ton, a month-on-month change of -3.
3% / + 5.
6% /, overall stable. The MDI listing price increased in March, and the price of petrochemical products weakened. On February 27, the company announced that it would raise the pure MDI / polymerized MDI listing price in China to 2 in March.
550,000 yuan / ton, up 1,000 / 2000 yuan / ton from February respectively.
According to Baichuan Information, the aggregate MDI price in East China is currently 1.
510,000 yuan / ton, year-to-date has increased by 0.
360,000 yuan / ton, a cumulative increase of 31%; pure MDI price is 2.
160,000 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0 year to date.
110,000 yuan / ton.
At present, the overall operating rate of domestic MDI devices is not high, and the peak demand season is coming soon from March to April, and there is limited room for downward MDI prices.
At the same time, due to lower demand in the off-season blended with oil prices, according to Baichuan Information, at the end of February, the prices of propylene / cyclic barium carbonate / acrylic acid in East China were 0.
850,000 yuan / ton, down 9 earlier.
8% / 7.
0% / 1.
Major asset reorganizations have been completed, and the rapid advancement of diversified new projects. The company has completed major asset reorganizations on January 31. It is expected that in the future, it will improve its business synergy in a sound global layout.
At the same time, the company 30 expects that the TDI project will be put into production at the end of December 2018, 5 intervention / year MMA projects, 8 forecast / year PMMA projects will be put into operation in January 2019, and it is estimated that the company expects 13 to enter the second phase of PC projects in 2019.Completed and put into production in the quarter, 50 MDI expansion projects will be completed in 2019, construction of 100 vinyl resin projects will begin, and completion in 2020. 40 MDI projects in the United States are progressing smoothly. The company is expected to start production in 2021.
Maintaining the “overweight” rating combined with the performance report, taking into account the price change of polyurethane (MDI, TDI), we lowered the company’s 2018-2020 net profit forecast to 106/120 / 13.5 billion US dollars (18 years according to the pre-merger caliber, original value120/135 / 1.5 million yuan), the corresponding EPS is 3 respectively.
30 yuan, the combined company’s valuation level (average 9 times PE in 2019), considering the company’s diversified business development, and significant layout advantages, the company is given 12-13 times PE in 2019, corresponding to a target price of 45.
66 yuan (original value 35.
71 yuan), maintaining the “overweight” level.
Risk Warning: Downstream demand continues to be at risk, new projects fail to meet expected risks