Hailan House (600398): Steady multi-brand layout of the main brand in the future

Hailan House (600398): Steady multi-brand layout of the main brand in the future

Investment Highlights The company released its 2018 annual report and realized a real revenue of 190.

900,000 yuan (+4.

89%), realized attributable / deducted non-net profit 34.

55/3.

3.3 billion, an increase of 3 respectively.

78% /-0.

63%.

Among 深圳桑拿网 them, 18Q4 achieved 60 in a single quarter.

4.7 billion (+5.

67%), realizing attribution / deduction of non-net profit8.

27/7.

5.9 billion, an increase of 1 each.

09% /-6.

10%.

At the same time, a profit distribution plan was announced, and it is planned to pay dividends for every 10 shares3.

80 yuan, the index rate is 3.

89%.

  By brand: The long-term revenue of the main brand has increased steadily and the gross profit margin has increased. The growth rate of Aiju Rabbit has improved and the proportion of revenue has increased.

① Channel expansion drives steady growth of major brands (+2.

6%).

In 18 years, the main brand Hailan House achieved revenue of 151.

4.3 billion (+2.

62%).

Among them, there was a net increase of 594 stores to 5,097, and the operating area increased by 7 as well.

76%.

北京夜生活网
In terms of store efficiency, benefiting from the closure of inefficient stores and the growth of commercial supermarkets, the same store is expected to achieve a growth rate of nearly 1%.

At the same time, due to 73.

59% of the new stores were established in 18H2, and the contribution of the new stores will be realized in 2019. It is expected that the efficiency of the main brand stores will be further improved.

During the same period, the gross profit margin of the main brand was 43.

40%, an increase of 3.

06PCTs, mainly because of higher gross profit margins, the proportion of buyouts increased (31% to 34%), direct sales increased (in the past 144, channel ratio increased from 1% to 3)

4%), and the optimization of joint policies between the company and franchisees.

② The growth rate of Aiju Rabbit has been increasing, but its proportion has increased to 6%.

In 18 years, Aiju Rabbit increased its net sales by 231 stores to 1281, achieving a revenue of 10.

RMB 990,000 (+22.

68%), of which the operating area and the Ping effect increased by 17 respectively.

53% and 4.

38%.Gross profit margin decreased by 3.

86PCT to 23.

93%, mainly affected by new stores and brand promotions.

③ In 18 years, San Keno / other brands achieved revenue 21 respectively.

21/3.

77 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.

82% / 25.

78%.

  Sub-channels: Optimized offline channel structure and slightly increased online share.

① The offline channel structure continued to improve, and the proportion of shopping mall stores increased.

It is estimated that the total number of shopping mall stores exceeds 1,300, and the number of stores accounts for nearly 20%.

Among them, the main brand shopping malls accounted for 18% (16% in 2018Q3), ijutu shopping malls accounted for about 20%, and over 90 of the other brands (295 in total) were shopping malls (mainly newBrand).

Looking at the settlement model, direct sales / joining in 2018 saw a net increase of 244/637 to 291/6382, and revenue increased by 118.

37% / 1.

93% to 6.

71/159.

4.6 billion.

② Multi-platform layout, online share increased slightly.

Through social e-commerce (WeChat / Xiaohongshu, etc.), multi-platform operation of traditional e-commerce and self-media, the total number of online members has reached 13.84 million (+ 28%), and nearly 3,500 stores have launched omni-channel retail systemsThe O2O model further optimizes the shopping experience for consumers.

Based on this, developing countries achieved online revenue11.

51 ‰ (+ 9).

25%), and the income ratio is 6.

14% (2017: 5).

91%).

  New brand cultivation and inventory impairment provisions increased, and net margin declined slightly.

Initial company gross margin increased by 1.

89PCT to 40.

84%, but the net interest rate dropped by 0.

19PCT to 18.

10%, mainly due to the cultivation and development of new brands, leading to an increase in sales expense ratio / R & D expense ratio / management expense ratio of 0.

92/0.

12/0.

23PCTs.

In addition, the income growth rate increased the inventory depreciation reserve for more than 2 years by 2.

US $ 4.2 billion, total budgeted asset impairment losses increased by 2.

5.6 billion (+ 202%).

However, investment income increased by 1.

48 ppm (+ 1153%). Taken together, the overall net margin dropped slightly.

19PCT.

  The consolidation and stocking of the new brand caused the initial inventory turnover and decreased cash flow.Consolidation of HEY LADS (about 3 billion), new brand stocking, resulting in an increase in inventory of about 1 billion, inventory turnover days increased by 9 days to 286 days, and net cash flow from operations decreased by 4 from the previous year.

6.1 billion.

  Profit forecast and investment advice.

The stability of the domestic brand’s leading men’s clothing brand of the main brand is expected to remain under the background of improved supply chain efficiency (enhancing support for core suppliers, improving product quality and replenishment ratio), improving inventory structure, and optimizing channels (increasing the proportion of shopping mall stores).Steady growth. At the same time, the new brand is expected to accelerate store opening in 2019, and jointly promote the company’s steady growth in performance.

In the long run, the company has played a platform role, promoted the informatization layout, continued to optimize the channel structure and deepened the cooperation with core suppliers, in order to continuously improve the efficiency of the supply chain and the synergy of multi-brand operations, and forged strong competition barriers for the company’s long-term development.

At the same time, the company’s underestimated high yield can also bring deterministic returns to investors.

The 2019/20/21 results are expected to be 37.

6/40.

1/42.

80,000 yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.

84/0.

89/0.

95 yuan, corresponding estimates are 12/11/10 times, maintain “Buy” rating.

  Risk warning: weak consumption, sales exceeded expectations; new brand cultivation is not up to expectations.

Ren Zeping-The stock market rally more reflects the 11 recommendations made by loose liquidity

Ren Zeping: The stock market rally more reflects the 11 recommendations made by loose liquidity

Potential momentum of the current epidemic in China’s economy, policy and capital market outlook Source: Zeping Macro was invited by the China Fortune 50 Forum.Define the internal theme: I will open my door and talk about the main judgments, as well as logic and evidence.

  First, the overall judgment is that the impact of the new crown epidemic on China’s economy will be greater than that of SARS, and the time may be shorter. New cases outside Hubei Province continue to decline. Seeing that compared to SARS, the dawn of the government is gradually and more severe.

At present, new cases outside Hubei Province continue to decline.

We judge that around March, the epidemic situation except Hubei Province is expected to be basically over.

The impact on China’s economy in a quarter, February was negative growth, GDP growth in the first quarter was about 4%, 4% in the fourth quarter of 2019, about 2 decline, which is a basic judgment.

  Compared with SARS, it can be seen that the new crown epidemic is more contagious and the case fatality rate has decreased.

SARS is the cause of more than 8,000 infections worldwide. China has diagnosed more than 7,000, with deaths of 685 and deaths of 9.
.

2%.

There are currently more than 70,000 new crown epidemics, with more than 1,800 deaths and a case fatality rate of 2.

6%.

  From the perspective of the trend, around February 3 was the peak of increasing confirmed cases outside Hubei Province, and then it fell for two weeks. The trend is still relatively obvious, and the epidemic situation outside Hubei Province was gradually stopped.

The situation in Hubei has been an upward trend from January to early February. However, it has recently entered a platform period and is now slightly offset.

  In the early days of the epidemic, it can be said that the army was defeated and the front line was chaotic.

But at the back, the central government went to war and quickly controlled the disease outside Hubei Province, and the epidemic situation in Hubei Province was gradually contained, and a good possibility appeared, dawn.

Tribute to frontline staff!

  Second, the impact on the economy should not be underestimated. The return to work in the city is obviously repeated. Obviously, it resumes work one week after the Spring Festival.

The power generation data is relatively obvious. In the history, one week after the Spring Festival, there was a climax of resumption of work, but at present, after two weeks of the Spring Festival, the power generation is still at the bottom, indicating that our resumption of work is obviously prominent.

  We look at the sales of real estate. Generally speaking, according to the past, there was a peak of returning home purchases after the Spring Festival. A large number of people returned from the first and second-tier cities to the third and fourth lines, and there was a peak of returning home purchases.

At present, the return to home ownership has basically failed. According to data released by Kerui, sales have plummeted by about 90%.

  Judging by the volume of passengers sent by railway, civil aviation, waterways, and highways, it is clear that the return to the city and return to work are obvious locations.

  Compared with SARS, the impact of the new crown epidemic on China’s economy is now somewhat divided, but everyone generally feels that the impact on the economy will exceed SARS.

The reasons are not complicated. The first is that the environment inside and outside the Chinese economy is different, and the pressure on the Chinese economy continues to decline.

Moreover, everyone knows that the epidemic mainly impacts consumption and has a certain impact on investment. We will see later that the impact on investment and production is relatively small compared to consumption.

Compared with 2003, China’s tertiary industry now accounts for 53% in 2019.

9%, an increase of 12 mergers over 17 years ago.

In 2003, we can see China’s economic growth rate, which fell by two probabilities in the second quarter, and rebounded quickly.

The trend of China’s economy is declining for ten consecutive years, and the downward pressure on the economy continues to be relatively large.

  The impact in 2003 was mainly on transportation, accommodation, catering, etc. This time the situation was similar.

We can now see that the economic structure has undergone relatively great changes.

Because it mainly impacts the tertiary industry, it will be dominated by the secondary industry in 2003, and the tertiary industry will transform in 2019. Therefore, the impact of this epidemic on the economy will be greater than that of SARS, and of course it may be shorter.

  We did three scenario analyses.

The first scenario is relatively optimistic. The peak appears in mid-February and basically ends outside Hubei in March, which mainly affects China’s economic GDP for a quarter.

The GDP forecast for the four quarters of each year is 4%, 6%, and 5.

8% and 5.

6%, 5 per year.

4%, this is the first scene.

The second scenario is to affect the Chinese economy for half a year, which is the end of June. The more pessimistic scenario is to affect the Chinese economy for three quarters. Currently we ignore the first scenario.
  Third, from the perspective of the industry, the agglomeration service industry has suffered large losses. In trillions, employment is severe and severe. Agglomeration industries such as tourism, catering, hotels, transportation, and real estate have suffered a lot.
A rough estimate has been made that these severely affected industries accounted for 30% of GDP and employment.

Of course, there are some industries that benefit, some say medicine, online entertainment and online office, but the proportion is relatively low overall.

  We simply calculated one by one, and we can see that some film, catering, and delivery, according to the available data, the three industries lost 1 trillion yuan in 7 days.

After the Spring Festival, according to big data, the employment situation is also relatively poor, and the employment trend will be severe this year.

  Fourth, the impact on consumption is greater than investment, and investment recovery will be faster. Residents have a lingering heart about consumption. SARS is similar to this time in that it has a greater impact on consumption than investment.

The outbreak of the Spring Festival during the Spring Festival itself is the peak season for consumption and the low season for investment, so the impact on consumption may be somewhat.

We judge that the recovery of investment and production in the future will also be faster than consumption.

Residents will have time to gather consumption.

It can be seen that in the second quarter of 2003, consumption fell by a big pit, and investment was OK, but investment and production soon recovered, and the magnitude of the shift was not so great.

After the SARS epidemic in 2003, the recovery of investment, the recovery of production in the secondary industry is faster than that in the secondary industry, and the recovery of consumer products will be slower.

  Fifth, the impact on prices will gradually ebb, but only in the short term at a relatively high interval just announced the January CPI data has increased significantly.

4%, mainly due to the surge in pig prices, the Spring Festival factors, and the epidemic situation.

We judge that the gradual recovery of shifting production and the ebb of residents’ panic, and the expected drop in prices may still be in a higher range, but it does not mean that it is gradual.

We still maintain our original point of view, and deflation is all we get out of pigs.

It can be seen that the core CPI without food and energy is only 1.

A 5% increase is in a reasonable range.

From July last year to December last year, our PPI has been in a negative growth deflation range for half a year.

  Sixth, the large increase in the stock market more reflects the loose liquidity, rather than the deterioration of economic fundamentals. The meaning of the stock market comparison is because of the recent epidemic, the economy is not good, and all industries are affected.

However, the stock market rose sharply, and the GEM also hit a new high.

Our understanding, including the communication with the market, the large increase in the stock market more reflects the loose liquidity than the deterioration of economic fundamentals.

Especially in the context of low expectations of financial institutions for lending to enterprises and real estate restructuring, liquidity is chasing equity assets.

We have invested a lot of currencies, and put out 1.700 billion liquidity in the open market on February 3-4.

There are two facts that can be proved: one is that the growth rate of the GEM has exceeded that of the main board, and even some analysts say that stocks with fundamentals are afraid to push them; the second fact is that stocks and bonds have doubled, and generally, stock market debtThe market changes in the opposite direction, only in the same direction when the margin of flow is abundant.

These two facts indicate that the current market is driven primarily by liquidity and risk appetite, not fundamentals.

Therefore, we suggest that the function of the stock market to support the real economy should be brought into play in the future to prevent concept speculation and capital idling.

  In my personal opinion, the recent two-council shooting is still more timely and professional, especially the normal market opening. I think that the rules of the market still need courage.

It can be seen that the latest liquidity situation was launched on February 3-4, two days after the launch.

7 trillion, of course, is short-term.

In terms of quantity, it is equivalent to 1.
.

5 demotions.

On January 1st, there was a RRR cut, and the base currency was invested 800 billion yuan, which is equivalent to two months from January to February.Recently, interest rates were cut through LPR and other methods. Today’s LPR is reduced by 10 BP, and the market is relatively liquid.

The yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell by 30 BP, and inter-bank market interest rates fell by 49 BP.

  Seventh, the epidemic situation is entering the second half. The focus is on both the prevention and control of the epidemic and the restoration of production. We judged that the epidemic is entering the second half.Bail out businesses.

Currency cuts in interest rates and standards, short-term liquidity support, tax cuts, increased deficit rates, deferred payment of social security, etc.

It should be said that some recent policies of the central government are relatively timely and effective.

  The next step should be to prevent and control by districts and levels, to prevent local governments from increasing the size of the market, exempting local responsibilities, and paying the bills.

This situation still exists to varying degrees.

We made a rough calculation, and you can see that the data is relatively clear. The number of confirmed diagnoses per 10,000 people in 20 provincial administrative regions of the country is less than 0.
1, that is, one in 100,000 can be clearly diagnosed as a low epidemic area, there are 20 provincial units, should be able to resume work in an orderly manner.

  Eighth, orderly return to work, prevent the second spread of epidemic situation, the area of population migration must not be taken lightly in the future, the evolution of the resumption of rework and rework, Beijing, Shanghai, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong and other regional central cities, theseAreas where the population has flowed in must focus on prevention and control to prevent secondary spread.
Recently, everyone in Beijing has seen that some sudden situations have occurred, all related to this thing.

  Explore flexible office work, shift to and from work, and work online to avoid cross-contamination of people.

Before the Spring Festival, 5 million people flowed out of Wuhan, mainly to places where it seemed that the epidemic situation was severe.

Years later, places like Beijing, Chengdu, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan, etc. are all a large influx of people, so in the next half to one month, these places cannot be taken lightly.

  Nine, what we should do in response to the epidemic: reserve the project in advance, and vigorously reduce the tax on infrastructure after the epidemic. We recommend that you reserve the project in advance. After the epidemic, large-scale infrastructure and tax reductions should be made to fill the smashed economy caused by the epidemic.In particular, it is necessary to carry out large-scale infrastructure construction that is appropriately advanced in urban agglomerations and regional central cities.

Large-scale infrastructure can hedge the downward pressure on the economy, help stabilize growth, stabilize employment, and currently have low commodity prices and financing costs.

Historically, China issued special treasury bonds to strengthen infrastructure during the Asian financial crisis in 1998, and launched a 4 trillion investment with infrastructure as the core during the global financial crisis in 2008. Although it was very controversial and criticized at the time, it now looks significant.Significantly reduced transportation costs and enhanced the global competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing. It is necessary to look at the issue from the perspective of development.

  China’s urbanization reform in 201960.

6%, and it is estimated that on average about 80%, China still has a lot of room, but the urbanized population will gather more in urban agglomerations.

We predict that when China ‘s urbanization rate reaches 71% by 2030, 80% of the 200 million new urban population will be concentrated in 19 urban agglomerations, and 60% will be in 7 urban agglomerations including the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.In the future, the rail transit, intercity railways, education, and medical infrastructure in the above areas will face severe shortages.

In areas with population migration, it is necessary to appropriately relax local debt requirements and not engage in a lifelong accountability system to promote large-scale infrastructure; however, in areas with population migration, we must treat them differently to avoid significant waste caused by large-scale infrastructure.

  We now think that it may be unscientific to pursue debt for life, including a “one-size-fits-all” approach that prevents places from engaging in relatively advanced infrastructure.

It should be treated differently according to the inflow of the population and the occurrence of the situation.

  X. In recent years, there have been frequent “epidemics” in the economic and social fields, and the urgency of reforming the deep-seated institutional mechanisms has risen. Some suggestions have been made in recent years. China has made outstanding achievements in the areas of government governance, haze control, deleveraging, precision poverty alleviation, and opening up.
  However, we must reflect on it and see clearly that in recent years, we have experienced frequent outbreaks in the economic and social fields, and the economy has continued to decline. We have suffered stock disasters in 2015, Sino-US trade frictions in 2018, andThe private economy’s “departure theory”, the abnormally large increase in pig prices, this pig price has risen more than previous pig cycles, as well as major challenges such as the new crown epidemic in 2020, exposing problems in our policies and institutions.
For example, some policies are “one size fits all” and they are overweight, and private and SMEs are injured by mistake. Some reforms are progressing slowly, people ‘s livelihood expenditure is insufficient, scientific and technological innovation shortcomings, the lack of public opinion supervision, and disorderly social governance. These issues are worthy of us.Thinking deeply, the urgency of deep-level institutional reforms must be avoided, and fires must be avoided everywhere.

  The last few suggestions: 1. From the aspect of the system and mechanism, the problems of the new coronary disease exposure, and many issues in the areas of open and transparent information, public opinion supervision, social governance, emergency management, medical technology, and people’s livelihood substitution, make us more sober, ChinaThe real gap between the governance systems and capabilities of advanced countries.

In the future, economic construction should be the focus, and more attention should be paid to people’s livelihood and people’s happiness.

  2. Strengthen the openness and transparency of information, strengthen the supervision of public opinion, attach importance to the news media and the public, and the right to know major public events.

Establish the Whistleblower Protection Act as soon as possible to protect citizens from breaking news in order to maintain social justice and the public interest. Whistlers should not be charged with leaking or spreading rumors as long as he has factual basis.

  3. Strengthen the construction of social governance system and local governance capacity, from “blocking” to “sparse”.

  4. Vigorously supplement the medical shortcomings, increase the cost of medical staff, and increase the proportion of people’s livelihood expenditure in public health care.

  5. Strengthen the construction of emergency medical system.

  6. Optimize the way to reduce taxes and fees.

In the past, we also made a lot of tax and fee reductions, but the company’s gain was not strong.

The study found that it is mainly related to the way of reducing taxes and fees. In the future, it should mainly change from alternative reductions and exemptions to reducing social security contribution rates, corporate income and personal income.

  7. Regarding the registration system as the starting point, improve the multi-level capital market and fundamentally solve the problem of financing of private SMEs.

  8. In order to cope with the continued decline of the economy, use the reform method to steadily 厦门夜网 grow, and liberalize the basic industries such as automobiles, finance, energy, telecommunications, and electricity. Medical education should appropriately compete with new investment forces or foster a new economygrowth point.

Deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises, break through the neutrality of competition and the neutrality of ownership.

  9. Reform of the housing system.

We have recently spent a lot of time studying the housing system and its housing market performance in typical international economies, such as the case of the United States, Britain, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Germany, and Germany.

The more we study, the more we find out that the key point we have now is that there are differences on the issues recognized by the housing system reform, and the fundamental problems cannot be solved within a few limits.

We summarize it as the word “Balman-land link, financial stability”, where people are demand, land is supply, and finance is leverage.

Real estate looks at population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term. These international positive and negative experiences and lessons tell us that people-land relations and financial stability are the keys to the reform of the housing system.

  10. Mobilize the enthusiasm of local governments and entrepreneurs, give local officials a new incentive mechanism, and give private entrepreneurs a peace of mind.

  11. To fully estimate the severity of the current economic indicators, the current price index is “deflation after removing pigs.”

The basis for short-term economic stabilization since the end of 2019 is not very consistent, so we recommend a prudent monetary policy, a proactive fiscal policy and vigorous reform and opening up.

  If China can promote a new round of reform and opening up, with great potential, the best investment opportunities will be in China.
For example, our per capita GDP is now just around $ 10,000, which is only 1/6 of that of the United States.

Our urbanization rate is 60%, and there are still 20 years.
China has 1.4 billion people and is the world’s largest unified market.

China is still very active in innovation and entrepreneurship.

Therefore, after the Sino-US trade friction and experiencing the new crown epidemic, we should be more sober. The crisis is not terrible. The key depends on how we respond and whether we can turn the crisis into an opportunity.

Tianqi Lithium (002466): 3Q19 results suffer from the decline in lithium prices and the impact of rising financial costs

Tianqi Lithium (002466): 3Q19 results suffer from the decline in lithium prices and the impact of rising financial costs

3Q19 Performance Performance Tianqi Lithium announced its 3Q19 performance: operating income of US $ 3.8 billion, approximately -20%; net profit attributable to mothers1.

40,000 yuan, corresponding profit of 0.

12 yuan, -92% in the past, consistent with the performance forecast.

In the third quarter of 19, the operating income was 1.2 billion U.S. dollars, a year of -18% / QoQ -3.

6%; net profit attributable to mother-0.

5.4 billion, previous -114% / -166%.

The company’s performance in the third quarter of 19 was mainly due to the decline in lithium prices and rising financial expenses.

Comments: 1) The price of lithium has fallen.

The average domestic price of 99% lithium carbonate in the third quarter of 19 was 5.

630,000 yuan / ton, -14% month-on-year -32%, average price of 1-3Q19 6.

30,000 yuan / ton, lower than -46%.

2) Gross profit margin continued to narrow.

In the third quarter of 19, gross profit margin (gross profits before deduction of taxes and surcharges) was 53%, which was -8ppt / -12ppt per year, and gross profit was down 16% / 1.

200 million, a year-on-year decrease of 33% / 3.

10,000 yuan.

3) Financial expenses have risen.

Financial expenses 重庆耍耍网 for the third quarter of 19 increased by 28% / 1.

400 million, an increase of 446% / 5 per year.

200000000.

4) The total income from investment + fair value changes in the third quarter of 19 increased by 69% / 0 from the previous month.

7.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 634% / 1.

600 million.

5) The effective tax rate in 3Q19 is -22ppt / -27ppt per year to 0.

3%.

6) Financial pressures remain difficult.

As of 3Q19, the company’s asset rejection rate was 75% and its net debt rate was 264%.

Development trend The company guides the net profit attributable to the mother to 0 in 2019.

8-1.

2 trillion, down 94 a year.

6% -96.

4%, implied 4Q19 net profit attributable to mother increased by 0.

2-0.

US $ 600 million, down 104% -112% previously, mainly due to the decline in lithium prices and SQM M & A loans leading to a significant increase in financial costs.

The rights issue is expected to repair the balance sheet.

The company’s rights issue has been approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission (not yet issued), and will be placed to all shareholders at the rate of 3 shares for every 10 shares. The plan is to raise no more than 7 billion US dollars, which is intended to be used to repay the purchase of SQM 23.

77% equity M & A loan.

If it successfully raises 70 million, the company’s net debt ratio is expected to fall to?
131%.
Lithium prices are nearing the bottom.
As of October 22, domestic industrial grade lithium carbonate price4.

950,000 yuan / ton, close to our estimated bottom price of 4.

5 million / ton (at this price?
1/3 mines at least), the downside of lithium price is limited.

Looking forward to 2020, we believe that the rebound in the growth of new energy vehicles and the demand for 5G replacement will jointly promote the marginal repair of the global lithium market.

Earnings forecasts and estimates are based on changes in assumptions such as prices. We lower our 2019/2020 earnings forecasts by 88% / 38% to 0.

97/7.

900 million.

The current company complies with the corresponding 37 in 2020.

5 times price-earnings ratio.

Maintain Neutral but lower target price by 10.

7% to 25 yuan (taking into account the estimated conversion), corresponding to 36.

2 times 2020 price-earnings ratio, compared with the recent merger of 3.

4% downside.

Risks New energy vehicle sales fell short of expectations, and lithium prices fell sharply.

Yunda shares (002120) semi-annual report comment: performance in line with expectations continued fine management

Yunda shares (002120) semi-annual report comment: performance in line with expectations continued fine management
Event: Yunda shares released its semi-annual report for 2019.2019H1 operating income 155.540,000 yuan, an increase of 163 in ten years.51%, net profit attributable to mother 12.96 ppm, an increase of 29 in ten years.6%, deducting non-net profit 11.870,000 yuan, an increase of 27 in ten years.46%.2019Q2 revenue 88.70,000 yuan, an increase of 173 in ten years.27%, net profit attributable to mother 7.30,000 yuan, an annual increase of 22.31%. The express delivery business volume maintained a high growth rate, and the revenue from the project of increasing payment income increased significantly.In the first half of 2019, the company achieved operating income of 155.540,000 yuan, an increase of 163 in ten years.51%, of which 142 was revenue from express delivery business.830,000 yuan, an increase of 174 in ten years.24%, mainly due to the increase in the volume of express delivery business and the increase of payment income items.2019H1 company completed 43 express delivery business volume.3.4 billion votes, an increase of 44 in ten years.71%, a growth rate higher than 19 mergers in the industry, with a market share of 15.62%, an increase of 2 over the same period last year.06 foreign countries.We exclude the factor of fee distribution and estimate that the gross profit margin has decreased by about 1.98 points, less affected by market competition than peers.In terms of expenses, sales expenses have increased by 28 per year.3%, mainly due to the increase in employee compensation, rent, etc .; management costs extended by 59.71%, mainly due to employees, due to the increase in informatization expenses, of which 杭州桑拿网 the Q2 management expense ratio decreased by 1 compared with Q1.56 points, mainly due to the impact of express transportation business; R & D investment increased by 33.51%, mainly due to the increase in research and development personnel; financial costs increase by 110 per year.72%, mainly due to the increase in interest rate expenditure. Refined management reduces costs and improves the express service experience.The company continues to deepen its “cost-leading” competition strategy based on technological innovation and refined management. In the core areas, the core route has increased the proportion of tractors and the average loading rate, and developed “car-to-car matching” and “no-load vehicle management” on the wayLoad system, through automatic equipment upgrades (development and expansion of multi-layer cross-belt, the efficiency is doubled compared to the previous), to promote straight running, reduce transfer interchange, and continue to reduce the marginal cost of a single ticket.In terms of service quality, the company effectively replenished in the first half of the month.06 (per million), a 96% annual decline. The efficient, convenient, high-quality express service experience and the company’s express business volume have achieved rapid growth in the industry, and the market share has steadily increased. Force aging and fresh products.The company regards “same day delivery, next day delivery” as the key progressive direction of aging products, and the monthly delivery rate of “inter-provincial 800 km next day delivery” has increased by up to 14% compared with the same period last year.The company has promoted the “Fresh Freshness” project of fresh-sealed delivery products in limited time. In Shaanxi, Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou and other places, the business volume of specialty fruit customers has increased by more than 300% and the growth potential is huge. Investment strategy: We forecast the company’s net profit for 2019-2021 to be 29.2.9 billion, 36.500 million, 44.61 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.5%, 24.6%, 22.2%, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk warning: E-commerce growth is lower than expected risk, price war exceeds expected risk, and labor cost rises sharply.

A shares traded 1.

4 trillion: staged V-shaped reversal software was “brushed”

A shares traded 1.

4 trillion: staged V-shaped reversal software was “brushed”

The impact of overseas panic on A shares is over?

Investing without looking at policies is like blindfolding. Come to Sina Finance University, listen to Miss Dong read the news, and understand the market.

  Excited?

A shares traded 1.

4 trillion, a V-shaped reversal was staged, and the market software was “brushed”. Is the GEM estimated to be high?

In the history of the re-examination, there have been three big bulls and two big tops. “Smart money” has been robbing these stock sources: every new original and every new edit of the global pneumonia epidemic continues to spread.

  The South Korean epidemic was in a hurry. The price of a Seoul-Qingdao air ticket changed 23 times a day, soaring from 500 yuan to 4,000 yuan.

In addition to Qingdao, the prices of Seoul ‘s Fei Weihai, Dalian, Beijing, and Shanghai have also maintained a rapid increase recently, with the economy class price exceeding RMB 7,000.

  Italian “patient No. 1” loves running, affecting 50,000 people in 10 cities!

  In addition, “Mission Impossible 7” starring Tom Cruise was originally planned to be filmed in Venice, Italy, but now due to the outbreak of a new type of coronary pneumonia in Italy, public places in Venice are closed and public activities are cancelled, including “DiscVenice Carnival in Spy 7

As a result, the film announced that filming was temporarily suspended, and Cruise and other starring actors need to stay in the hotel.

  Yesterday the European and American stock markets plunged. What made many investors unexpected was that today the A-share index staged a V-shaped reversal. The ChiNext Index still led the gains and closed up by 1.

03%.

  The turnover of A shares exceeded the trillion mark for 5 consecutive trading days, reaching 1 today.

4 trillion, however, northbound funds have been reduced for two consecutive trading days.

  According to media reports, some netizens have reported on social media that Tongdaxin software crashed at about 14:45 today.

Flush trading software is also stuttering.

Yes, Tongdaxin responded to the weighing. The server was urgently expanding due to failure or excessive capacity.

Later, the flush flush also said that the server was abnormally hot.

  Is the current market a bit hyperactive?

Is the current valuation of the GEM high?

What other stocks are worth watching?

Today, Xiaobian came to sort it out.

  The GEM turnover exceeded 300 billion yuan, and the market software was “brushed out” Today, the stock staged a V-shaped reversal, which was stronger than many investors expected.

  There are many attractions on the market, and ZTE has again reached a daily limit with a turnover of 144.

900 million, ranking first in the two cities.

There are 3 stocks that have traded over 10 billion yuan, the other two are Oriental Fortune, BOE A.

  Along with the global spread of new crown pneumonia, pharmaceutical stocks and mask stocks have regained strength, with multiple stocks having daily limit.

  Semiconductor also has several stocks with daily limit.

  However, some are that the turnover of A shares has exceeded the trillion mark for 5 consecutive trading days, and today it has reached 1.

4 trillion.

  According to media reports, some netizens have reported on social media that Tongdaxin software crashed at about 14:45 today.
Flush trading software is also stuttering.
Yes, Tongdaxin responded to the weighing. The server was urgently expanding due to failure or excessive capacity.

Later, the flush flush also said that the server was abnormally hot.
  On February 25, there was a net overlap in northbound funds, and the closing was terminated, with a total net overlap of 48.US $ 3.1 billion, of which the Shanghai Stock Connect saw a net decrease of 32.

6.9 billion yuan, the Shenzhen Stock Connect net reduction of 15.

6.2 billion.

  From the perspective of the GEM, the single-day turnover has exceeded 221 billion in the peak period of the bull market in 2015. From February 18, the single-day turnover has officially reached a record high. Today’s turnover has reached 320.3 billion, exceeding the peak period of the 2015 bull marketOf 44.

93%.

  From the perspective of the GEM funding line, after breaking through the historical top last Friday, the two trading days this week continued to rise. 重庆耍耍网 According to historical experience, the general funding line should break the 50% margin at the top of history, so the probability of successful breakthroughWill increase significantly, the current breakthrough of the top of the amplitude of 11%, so this breakthrough is not enough.

  This means that if the capital line is turned around, the GEM index may form a big top. If the capital line continues to rise, even reaching a 50% breakthrough rate, the probability of a bull market on the GEM will greatly increase.

  Looking back at historical data, 1, October 1996?
In December 1996, the funding line broke the top of the history by more than 100%, and then the index continued to plummet, but it did not change the course of the bull market.

  2. In May 2006, the capital line broke the top of history by more than 40%. After the 南京桑拿网 break, the market officially entered a bull market.

  3, July 2009?
In August, the funding line broke the historical top by nearly 20%. Due to the insufficient breakthrough, the 3,478 points of the Shanghai Index constituted a big top.

  4, October 2010?
In November, the capital line broke the historical top by 30%. Due to the insufficient breakthrough, the Shanghai Index also constituted a big top.

  5, November 2014?
In December, the funding line broke the top of history by 70%, and the breakthrough spanned. After the break, A shares officially entered a bull market.

  Judging from the above point of judging the bull market, it is based on the stock index having a certain increase, such a point is either a big top or a big bull beginning.

A shares have experienced countless intermediate rebounds, but there have been only three bull markets in history (the 2009 market has not been included in the bull market), but from the above rules, the probability of seeing market trends is higher.

  Is the current GEM estimate high?

  Wind data show that as of February 24, the GEM Index’s rolling price-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) reached 64.

38 times, so how high is the GEM estimate?

  It should be noted that, for the ChiNext Index, the dynamic P / E ratio at the current stage is higher than that of P / ETM.

This is mainly related to the P / ETM algorithm in the Wind database, and the progress of GEM stock performance display is different from other sectors.

TTM means that for the last 12 consecutive months.

  As the 2019 annual report has not yet been released, the profit data is as of the end of September 2019. Compared with the continuous change of daily earnings, the profit data is obviously lagging.

  According to the disclosed data, GEM’s 2019 annual report net profit growth rate reached 64.

43%, a new high of nearly four years.

  So 64.

The 38 times GEM index rolling price-earnings ratio may be falsely high.

  Some analysts said that in order to solve the above problems, the GEM estimate can be viewed from the perspective of dynamic price-earnings ratio.

The numerator of the dynamic P / E ratio is still the total market value of the listed company, and the denominator is adjusted to the expected profit.

The data shows that the current dynamic P / E ratio data of the GEM index is at the median level from 2016 to the present, which is basically consistent with the historical quantile of the dynamic P / E ratio of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which is not high.

This is mainly due to the very strong earnings growth forecast of the GEM in 2020.

  Guo Xiang Securities Securities analyst Yan Xiang believes that it is estimated that it is the result of a market transaction under appropriate circumstances, not the reason for the transaction.

In fact, when the expected rise or fall has ended, you will find that the stock valuation is high or low.

But you can’t say that it will rise when it is low, and it will fall when it is high. In most cases, it is estimated that it can be low again, and it can be high again.

  In fact, from another perspective, I think that when the estimate is lower, it will rise, and when the estimate is higher, it will fall, or the single factor of the estimated height is used as the reason for long or short, which is essentially inQuestion the effectiveness of the market.

Because the estimated level is definitely a public market information, if you think that the estimated level is lower than expected, it will increase, which is logically equal to the market trading result before you deny it.

Then the question comes, why should the previous trading results be wrong?

!!Always questioning market effectiveness is risky.

Therefore, I think that, under reasonable circumstances, the single factor of estimating the height should not be used as the basis for interpreting fluctuations.

  The benchmark interest rate on deposits and targeted RRR cuts deserve attention. From the recent monetary policy, it is also worth paying attention to, and I will sort it out.

  The Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on February 21 to study the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and plan to do a good job in epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development.
The meeting pointed out that a proactive fiscal policy should be more proactive and play a role in policy finance.

A prudent monetary policy should be more flexible and appropriate, alleviate financing difficulties and expensive financing, and provide precise financial services for epidemic prevention and control, resumption of work and production, and development of the real economy.

It is necessary to increase assistance to key industries and small and medium-sized enterprises, and the rescue policy must be accurately implemented, and the policy must run ahead of the trapped enterprises.

  Recently, Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the People ‘s Bank of China, said in an exclusive interview with the “Financial Times” that the People ‘s Bank of China will continue to maintain a reasonable and adequate liquidity, and promote the LPR reform to continue to release the potential of financial institutions to reduce interest rates, promote the apparent decline in the actual interest rate of loans, and ensure settlement.It is difficult for small and micro enterprises to raise funds, and there has been significant progress.

By further improving the LPR replacement mechanism, promoting the conversion of existing floating interest rate debt pricing benchmarks, promoting banks’ active and orderly use of LPR pricing, changing traditional pricing thinking, resolutely breaking through the hidden lower limit of debt relief, and facilitating monetary policy intervention.

The benchmark deposit interest rate is the “ballast stone” of the nominal interest rate system and will be retained for a long time.

In the future, the People’s Bank of China will, in accordance with the State Council ‘s deployment, comprehensively consider the fundamental conditions of economic growth and price levels, and make timely and appropriate adjustments.

  At the press conference of the State Council Information Office at 10 am on February 24, 2020, Chen Yulu, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, said that we must also make full use of existing inclusive monetary policy tools, such as supporting agriculture,Loans and discounting of these monetary policy tools require greater policy intensity.

In the near future, inclusive financial targeted reduction will also undergo annual dynamic adjustments, and more qualified banks will receive preferential policy support.

  The benchmark deposit interest rate and targeted RRR cut mentioned above have attracted investors’ attention.

  ”Smart Money” obviously increased these stocks!

  For the current market, many stocks are soaring, so what stocks are worth paying attention to?

  Some analysts believe that the stocks of “smart money” northbound funds that actually increase their holdings deserve attention.

McGmitter (002851): Stealth Champion Takes to the Next Level

McGmitter (002851): Stealth Champion Takes to the Next Level
Event 2018 achieved revenue of 23.940,000 yuan (ten years +60.2%), net profit attributable to mother 2.0.2 million yuan (ten years +72.7%).Excluding the impact of share-based payments and major asset reorganizations, net profit attributable to the parent is approximately 2.3.7 billion (+82.3%).The company plans to transfer 5 capital shares for every 武汉夜网论坛 10 shares of capital reserve. A brief comment is that the company’s business is fragmented and it is not easy to achieve a revenue growth rate of more than 60%. Smart home appliances and new energy vehicles are the main contributors.In terms of different products, the average value of the business of inverter household appliances power converters and smart toilets has increased by more than 60%, and the growth rate of new energy vehicles and rail transit businesses has reached nearly 400%.Preliminary consolidated gross profit margin 29.49%, a decrease of 1.84pct, mainly due to the rapid growth of low-margin smart home appliances, and the decline in the gross profit of new energy vehicle electronic control modules. Looking ahead to 2019, we believe that new energy vehicles are still the focus of attention.The focus of BAIC’s new energy strategy this year has shifted from EC to the EU and EX and other mid-to-high-end models, and the company is a major supplier of EU and EX electronic controls, which will directly benefit from the heavy volume of mid-to-high-end models.Sales increase by 20 per month.46%, EU aircraft sales in March, sales of the month 1.30,000 vehicles, + 9308% a year, + 419% qoq. The company intends to issue convertible bonds and raise no more than 6.US $ 5.5 billion to strengthen research and development, expand production capacity, acquire the remaining 14% equity of Jardine Sanitary, and supplement working capital.This will further consolidate the development of new energy vehicles, digital welding machines and other related products, broaden the product line and production capacity of the new energy vehicle sector, and the acquisition of the remaining equity in Jardine Sanitary Ware will further increase the performance of the parent company. The company has established a highly educated, high-level management team with an international background and vision. The management mode of “Business Department + Resource Platform” has matured. We once again highlight the company’s ability to use electronic control technology 杭州夜网 for downstream applications.Will bring strong business scalability and imagination.Optimistic about the company’s long-term development! Profit forecast: It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to its mother in 2019-2021 will be 3 respectively.40 billion, 4.36 billion, 5.48 ppm, maintaining the “overweight” rating. Risk Warning: Power Device Out of Stock, New Energy Vehicle Policy Changes, Trade Frictions

Sanqi Mutual Entertainment (002555) 2018 Annual Report Commentary: Mobile Games Business Drives Growth Against Market, Companies Have Significant Head Effects

Sanqi Mutual Entertainment (002555) 2018 Annual Report Commentary: Mobile Games Business Drives Growth Against Market, Companies Have Significant Head Effects

I. Incident In 2018, the company realized operating income of 76.

33 ppm, an increase of 23 in ten years.

33%; total profit 12.

1.9 billion, down 36 a year.

38%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies10.

09 billion, down 37 a year.

77%; non-GAAP net profit 15.

10,000 yuan, an increase of 6 in ten years.

56%.

Second, our analysis and judgment The company’s mobile game business grew rapidly in 2018, driving revenue growth against the market, and achieved new breakthroughs at home and abroad.

In 2019, there are sufficient game reserves, and we are actively deploying the cultural and creative fields.

(I) Mobile games drive performance growth, R & D growth increases profitability The company achieved operating income of 76 in 2018.

33 ppm, an increase of 23 in ten years.

33%; the mobile game business achieved operating income of 55.

82 ppm, a 69-year increase of 69.

99%, the growth of mobile game publishing and R & D business is the main driver of the overall revenue growth of the two companies.

The company’s well-known R & D expenditures incurred in 2018.

40 ppm, an increase of 22 in ten years.

94%; its mobile game R & D business is growing by 61 every year.

05%, the proportion of self-developed product revenue increased, further improving the company’s profitability.

Net profit attributable to mother 10.

09 billion, down 37 a year.

77%, mainly because the subsidiary Shanghai Mo Yan’s performance commitment failed to meet the relevant performance compensation gains and goodwill impairment losses.

(2) Multi-point domestic and overseas efforts to expand the growth space in various fields Contradicting 北京桑拿洗浴保健 reports, the company not only maintained the advantages of the domestic market, but also achieved breakthroughs in the overseas market.

Domestically, the company has adjusted its distribution strategy to diversification, and has launched more than 20 different types and alternative games. Among them, “Doulau” H5, “One Blade Passed Down” and other products achieved monthly sales of over 100 million.

Overseas, games such as “Age of Eternity” have achieved good results in Japan and South Korea each month.

The company has sufficient game reserves in 2019, helping the company to further develop overseas markets.

(III) The “four modernizations” strategy is steadily advancing, and companies in the field of cultural and creative industries are actively deployed. The focus is on steadily advancing the development strategy of “四川耍耍网boutique, diversification, platform, and transformation” around IP.In the list, the company ranked 22nd, ranking up, and ranked third among Chinese game manufacturers.

In the future, the company plans to focus on the game’s main business and traffic operation advantages, combining the previously deployed VR and AR, to enable the invested companies to form strategic synergies, and prepare for the upcoming 5G era to build a cultural and entertainment ecosystem.
Third, the investment proposal estimates that the company’s net profit attributable to the mother in 19-20 will be 18 respectively.

64 ppm / 21.

62 trillion, corresponding to 0 EPS.

88/1.

02, the corresponding PE is 15.

5x / 13.

4x, give recommendation level.

Fourth, risks indicate that the game flow is lower than expected, and the game review policy is becoming stricter.

ZTE (000063) Interim Review: Further focus on 5G operator business overseas business eye-catching gross margin continues to increase

ZTE (000063) Interim Review: Further focus on 5G operator business overseas business eye-catching gross margin continues to increase

Event: On the evening of August 27, ① The company released its 2019 interim report: the first half of the year realized operating income of 446.

09 million yuan, an increase of 13 in ten years.

12%; net profit attributable to mother 14.

71 ppm, an increase of 118 in ten years.

80%; ② The company released the first three quarter results forecast: the company expects to achieve net profit return to mother 38 in the first three quarters.

00?
46.

00 ppm (previous year expected 72.

6 billion), of which in the third quarter achieved net profit attributable to mothers23.

2.9 billion?
31.

2.9 billion.

Endogenous growth: Net profit increased by 125 after deduction.

73%, Q2 single quarter non-recurring profit and loss impact is small.

According to the interim report, the company achieved operating income of 224 in Q2.

07 million yuan, an increase of 88 in ten years.

18% (last quarter quarter-19).

34%), Q2 single-quarter net profit attributable to mother 6.

08 million yuan, an increase of 125 in ten years.

16% (115 in the previous quarter).

95%).

In the first half of 2019, the company realized net profit after deduction of non-return to mothers6.

120,000 yuan, an increase of 125 in ten years.

73%.

Among them, Q2 single quarter net profit after deducting non-return to the mother4.

79 ppm (Q1 single quarter net profit after deducting non-return to mothers1.

3.3 billion).

The company recognized non-recurring gains and losses in the first half of the year8.

59 trillion, of which only 1 in the second quarter.

29 trillion, while 7 in the first quarter.

US $ 3 billion, mainly due to fair value transfers.

By business: the proportion of operators’ business and the growth of gross profit margin increased, and the consumer business contracted.

Reporting intelligence, the company’s operator network realized operating income of 324.

850,000 yuan, an increase of 38 in ten years.

19%; government and corporate affairs realized operating income of 47.

00 ppm, an increase of 6 in ten years.

02%; consumer business realized income 74.

24 ‰, 35 from the previous decade.
41%.

The company’s three major businesses have gross profit margins of 44.
73%, 36.

95% and 16.

48%, an increase of 3 each year.

49, 8.

33 pct and 8.

1 pct.

In addition, the company’s operator’s network business revenue ratio reached 72 in the first half of the year.

82%, a year-on-year increase of 13.
.

21 pct, corresponding to the proportion of consumer business income replaced to 16.

64%, a decrease of 12 a year.

51.

Sub-regions: The rapid growth of foreign countries in Asia + Africa reflects the restoration of confidence among major customers in Asia and Africa. The domestic relay is expected in the second half of the year.

Reporting information, the company’s domestic market achieved revenue of 274.

2.2 billion (previously +6.

51%), accounting for 61.

47%.

The company’s international market achieved revenue of 171.

8.7 billion (previously +25.

57%), accounting for 38.

53%.

Among them, the company’s Asia (excluding China) region revenue increased by 83.

16%, Africa’s income increased 111.

The gross profit margins of the two places increased by 61% respectively.

75 pct and 9.

02 pct.

At the same time, the company’s revenue in Europe, America and Oceania replaced 18.

14%, gross margin continued blood sugar.

Therefore, the company’s gross profit in China, Asia and Africa accounts for 88%.

8%, the European region’s contribution to the company’s performance has increased.

We will continue to increase R & D investment.

The company’s R & D investment in the first half of 2019 reached 64.

72 ppm, an increase of 27 in ten years.

89%.

R & D funding accounted for 14 of the revenue.

51% (12 in the same period last year).

83%).

On August 22, the company’s non-public offering was reviewed and approved by the CSRC (the written approval document of the CSRC has not been received).
According to the preliminary plan, the company’s fixed increase of funds raised this time does not exceed 130 trillion, after the replacement of the issuance fee, it is used for “technology research and product development projects for 5G network access” (91.

10 billion) and supplementary working capital (39.

00ppm), will complement the company’s ammunition and support the company’s subsequent research and development of 5G.
The headquarters base project continued to advance, which had a positive impact on pre-tax profits.

The company issued an announcement on July 11, 2019: The company signed an 杭州桑拿网 agreement with Vanke, Vanke will fully entrust the company to own the office property and cultural facilities of the Shenzhen Bay Super Headquarters Base Project, bear all development and construction funds, costs and risks, and own ownership and occupy correspondingAll the proceeds from the project will be handed over to the company for use.

After the completion of this cooperation, it is expected that the company will recognize a total pre-tax profit of approximately 3 billion during the whole cycle of the project?
3.3 billion, including a pre-tax profit of approximately 2.6 billion in 2019?
2.9 billion, the rest will be realized between 2020 and 2022.

Investment advice: We expect the company in 2019?
Income in 2021 will be 1021.

8.9 billion yuan (+19.

5%), 1231.

7.5 billion (+20.

5%), 1455.

3.2 billion (+18.

2%), the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company is 50.

07 billion, 66.

6.2 billion (+33.

1%), 80.

2.4 billion (+20.

4%), corresponding EPS is 1.

19 yuan, 1.

58 yuan, 1.

90 yuan, corresponding to PE is 25 times, 19 times, 16 times.

Continue to be optimistic about the company’s medium- and long-term investment value as the core target of 5G main equipment, and maintain the “Buy-A” investment rating.

Risk Warning: Changes in the international trading environment and changes in market returns.

Collis (603808): Outstanding performance among similar companies

Collis (603808): Outstanding performance among similar 武汉夜网论坛 companies

2019Q1 company achieved revenue 6.

23 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.

32%, net profit attributable to mother was 8,916.

320,000 yuan, an increase of 11 in ten years.

00%.

The main brand and Ed Hardy have grown steadily, Laurel has improved, and from the perspective of IRO China’s fast-growing sub-brands, the company ‘s main brand revenue is 2.

53 ppm, an increase of ten years6.

42%.

Laurel revenue is 0.

24 ppm, an increase of -13 in ten years.

55%.

EdHardy Revenue 1.

24 ppm, a six-year increase of 6.

19%.

IRO revenue 1.

61 ppm, an increase of 10 in ten years.

45%, of which IRO China revenue increased 270.

74%.

VT revenue is 0.

40,000 yuan, an increase of 454 in ten years.

11%.

In terms of channels, there are 307 channels of GLS, with a net increase of 5, Laurel 39, a net increase of 2, EdHardy 180, a net decrease of 1, IRO51, a net increase of 2, VT14 and a net increase of 1.

In terms of channels, direct sales revenue3.

27 ppm, an increase of 13 in ten years.

19%.

Franchise revenue 2.

40 ppm, a ten-year increase of -0.

twenty one%.

The overall gross profit margin decreased slightly, the expense ratio remained stable during the period, and the operating indicators remained stable.

82%, 67 in the same period last year.

05%, mainly due to the slightly broadened price band of the main brand Gorius, while the proportion of EdHardy’s X series increased.

Period expenses 42.

95%, 42 in the same period last year.

06%, of which the sales expense ratio increased, and the management expense ratio decreased. The former was mainly due to the increase in expense, including the increase in new brand expenses, and the majority was mainly reduced by share-based amortization.

In terms of operating indicators, the inventory turnover days and accounts receivable turnover days were 208 days and 49 days, respectively, compared with 198 days and 48 days in the same period last year.

The expected EPS for 2019-2021 is 1.

32 yuan / share, 1.

59 yuan / share, 1.90 yuan / share We are optimistic that the company’s growth 杭州夜网论坛 rate is expected to accelerate quarter by quarter. In addition to the decrease in the base year-on-year, the impact of the Spring Festival in January-February was basically eliminated. The growth of terminal sales returned to normal in March.The future development accelerates the opening of stores. Compared with the fourth quarter of last year, EdHardy has improved significantly and is expected to remain stable.

The current price corresponds to 13 times the 2019 price-earnings ratio. With reference to comparable companies, the company is given a 16-year price-earnings ratio for 2019, with a reasonable value of 21.

12 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminders of goodwill impairment risk; terminal retail downturn risk; multi-brand management risk.

Kitakami Capital’s change in May: 6 consecutive days of net overlap in favor of low-priced stocks

Kitakami Capital’s “change in May”: 6 consecutive days of net overlap in favor of low-priced stocks

Kitakami Capital’s “change in days” in May: 6 consecutive days of net overlap, preference for low-priced stocks. On May 23, the three major A-share index adjustments were weak throughout the day, with a weak performance.

At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.

35% at 2852.

52 points, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index fell 2.

56%, GEM Index fell 2.

51%.

  On the disk, the industry sector fell nearly across the board, and artificial meat, pork, Huawei, 5G, information security, industrial hemp, and blockchain all fell sharply.

  Funds from Kitakami continued to move up and down, and the data showed that the net was over 38 on the day.

7.9 billion yuan.

Among them, the Shanghai Stock Connect saw a net decrease of 13.

5.1 billion yuan, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange net reduction of 25.

2.8 billion, a net overlap for the sixth consecutive trading day.

  After the preference for low-priced stocks entered May, due to the increasing instability of the surrounding environment, Kitakami Capital continued to sell net.

  Judging from the stocks with more than 10 million shares reduced by Kitakami Capital, since May, China Construction, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and other large-cap blue-chip stocks have been the main targets of the sell-off.Compared with the shareholding data at the end of April, the share reduction ratios have exceeded 10%.

  In addition, Hikvision, Yili shares, Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Hengrui Medicine and other white horse stocks can reduce the number of shares, but from the perspective of the proportion of reductions, relatively low.

  However, under the slump, Beijing Capital still increased its holdings on some stocks.

According to Wind statistics, the increase in capital of Kitakami has a preference for stocks below 10 yuan.

For example, on May 21, out of 1,341 shares of China Stock Exchange with a change in shareholding, 665 shares of Beijing Capital increased the number of shares.

According to statistics, only 665 stocks that have been overweighted are multiplied by the number of overweighted stocks and the average stock transaction price of the day, and then divided by the total number of overweighted stocks.

34 yuan / share; in the same way, 676 Northbound funds sold net stocks, with an average price of 16.

7 yuan / share.

Shows that the current northward capital favors low-priced stocks.

  On May 20, the net capital of Kitakami could be reduced by 24.

At 26 trillion, of the 1,342 Mainland-listed stocks whose shareholdings have changed, 693 Northbound funds have increased their shareholdings and 649 shareholdings have decreased. On the day, Northbound Funds’ overall shareholding increased by one.

1.7 billion shares.

The expected average price of an overweight stock is 9.

78 yuan / share, the average price of stock reduction is 17.

82 yuan / share.

  Institutional outlook Huaxin Securities pointed out that the current market has indeed entered the end of the decline, but one point can be found through the recent two days of the market’s rebound momentum is not strong.

In the recent period when the overall rebound volume can be weakened and the rebound strength is excessively weakened, it is believed that short-term indexes even occur repeatedly, and it does not even rule out that the index will bottom out twice, but for investors, the current index is generally downThe space also tends to be limited, so if the index adjusts again deeply, you should dare to make a bottom.

  China Development Securities pointed out that the increase in short-term events, the pressure on the index to test 2800 points in the short term.

Recently, the MSCI announced the decomposition factor time and continuous stable exchange rate replacement, waiting for the market to rebound after the risk is released.

Before the end of June, the market lacked a new main line and innovative high momentum. It is recommended to maintain low and medium positions.

Recently, urgent attention has been paid to anti-risk large consumption and pharmaceutical sectors, as well as domestic alternative companies in Huawei’s industrial chain, to avoid overvalued and underperforming stocks.

  The AVIC Securities Research Report pointed out that although short-term uncertain factors affect swap allocation, in the context of accelerating financial opening, the expansion of MSCI expansion will take effect in the next five months for the relative factor of A shares, and structural factors will still drive overseasFunds flowed into A shares.

Against the backdrop of increasing external environment uncertainty, expectations of domestic policy hedging efforts continue to adjust at the same time, and the market may usher in more capital inflows in the future.

  Ping An Securities believes that due to the uncertainty of the external environment, global asset price sentiment is still mainly risk aversion.

However, high-quality leading listed companies with stable performance (especially in emerging industries) will continue to benefit from the support of real economy and capital market policies, and it is still worth expanding.  Haitong Securities said that there is limited room for further downside of the market, and it is expected that the Shanghai Index will continue to oscillate around 2830 to 2960.

At the same time, after the continuous expansion on May 28, the MSCI conversion A-share segmentation factor increased from 5% to 10%, and the capital of Northbound is expected to be transformed again, which still has a good positive impact on the funds.

Therefore at this stage, investors are advised not to be too pessimistic.

  CITIC Construction Investment said that considering the expansion of MSCI at the end of 5 months and the replacement of the current currency exchange rate is only one step away from 7, we expect the passive capital allocation and exchange rate to stabilize again at the end of the month.

The current overseas funds are paying special attention to the Chinese market. Overseas institutions are actively studying the A-share target and finding qualified internal investment entrustment agencies. However, until China’s economic recovery is increasingly strengthened, Beijing Capital will continue to wait and see.

Dividing A shares by the MSCI index will not necessarily bring foreign exchange inflows in a short period 杭州桑拿 of time, but once the economic recovery is confirmed, we expect that the capital of Northbound will resume its transfer. At this point in time, we need to wait patiently.