Month: May 2020

AVIC Sunda (000043)： Restructuring pricing in line with expectations

AVIC Sunda (000043): Restructuring pricing in line with expectations

Event: The company recently issued an announcement to determine the transaction consideration for its shares issued to acquire China Merchants Property. The final appraisal price was 29.

90,000 yuan, corresponding to 杭州桑拿网 China Merchants Property’s 2018 net profit of about 20 times PE; after the completion of the issuance, the company’s total share capital is 10.

With 600 million shares, China Merchants Shekou will become the company’s largest shareholder, holding a total of 51 listed companies.

16% of the shares.

Reconstruction pricing is in line with expectations, and there is still room for improvement.

With reference to last Friday’s closing price, the new AVIC Sunda Property Management business corresponds to 34 times PE for 18 years; China Merchants Property promises that the net profit for 2019, 20 and 21 will not be less than 1.

59, 1.

89, 2.

15 megabytes, under conservative considerations, the new PE of China Aviation Sunda in 2019 is only 22 times, which is a space for mutual replacement with the leading property management 杭州夜网论坛 company in Hong Kong stocks.

Considering that the company is a rare high-quality property management target of A shares, the company has reason to enjoy the evaluation premium.

The tube area approaches 1.

500 million cubic meters, the property management leader set sail.

At present, AVIC Sunda has investment management area of 76.44 million and 70.82 million square meters, and the combined management area is close to one.

500 million square meters, and owns the dual genes of residential and institutional properties.

After the reorganization, as the only listed property management platform of China Merchants Group, the new AVIC Sunda will definitely receive its strong support. The company will fully benefit from the strong strength and diversified portfolio of China Merchants Group, and will be entrusted to manage four shopping malls.The only thing is the beginning.

Various factors have driven profit repair.

In 2018, the net interest rates of AVIC Property and China Merchants Property were 4, respectively.

4%, 4.

9%, there is a gap in the net profit margin of listed property management companies.

With the completion of the reorganization transaction, the company will rely on China Merchants Group to improve the certainty of future scale growth. At the same time, the company will change the cost, brand center to the profit center of the subordinate housing companies, and use technology to empower and add value.The increase in per capita performance brought by the company, the company’s profit margin is expected to be repaired, the robe exceeded the original performance commitment target.

The progress of this profit repair has been verified many times in many Hong Kong stock listed property management companies.

Maintain the company’s buy rating, assuming that the reorganization is completed in 2019, and the performance of China Merchants Property is consolidated. It is expected that the company’s EPS in 2019, 2020 and 2021 will be 0.

46, 0.

65, 0.

91 yuan, corresponding to PE is 31, 22, 15 respectively.

8 times.

Give the company’s property management business 25 times PE for 20 years with a target price of 18.

5 yuan.

Risk warning: The profit repair is less than expected, and the incremental project delivery is too slow.

TCL Group (000100)： The panel industry has changed and the Huaxing Optoelectronics remains the king

TCL Group (000100): The panel industry has changed and the Huaxing Optoelectronics remains the king

Semiconductor display: The remainder of the inventory size is king. Large-size panel demand growth rate has not seen a significant tilt, supply continues to release, and oversupply continues.

The industry is about to usher in a new round of reshuffle, backward production capacity will further drive the clear, emerging applications will accelerate penetration.

With the withdrawal of old production capacity and the slowdown of more production capacity after 2020, the oversupply of the industry will slow down. In 2021, the industry may once again enter a new cycle of booming capital seeking.

At that time, the leading addition of Huaxing Optoelectronics will be further enhanced.

New technologies are driven by counter-cycles, and the increasing demand for large-scale products will trigger the boom cycle after the end of the downward cycle.

TCL Group: After the completion of the reorganization of the Huaxing Optoelectronics-based technology industry group company, a new architecture model with Huaxing Optoelectronics as the core, and industrial finance and venture capital as the supplement, was formed.

Huaxing Optoelectronics is currently one of the world’s leading TV panel manufacturers. It also has small-sized panels with LTPS and AMOLED, leading the scale advantage.

Through continuous R & D and perfect technical layout and breakthroughs in various fields, Huaxing Optoelectronics has become a model of high operating efficiency and efficiency in the panel industry.

Expanding categories, repairing internal strength, and gradually expanding the advantages of production capacity, Huaxing Optoelectronics’ operating indicators are at the forefront of the industry.

Breaking through the mystery of Huaxing Optoelectronics, the panel industry is about to usher in the dawn of the panel industry. For the panel industry, the cost advantage and capacity expansion of new competitors disrupt the balance of the industry. The accumulation of late entrants during the expansion period determines the company’s performance at the inflection point of the cycle.Profit elasticity. When the industry is at the bottom of the cycle, the strength of profitability and changes in future expectations determine the bottom of the estimate.

The boom cycle and self-expansion stage of the industry determine the estimated level.

The shift of the industrial chain is accelerating the reshuffle of the panel industry pattern. The domestic panel industry is about to usher in dawn, and leading companies are gradually moving out of the bottom.

Risks suggest that the semiconductor display continues to be sluggish, and downstream demand is not up to expectations; the company ‘s capacity release is not up to expectations, and new technology and new product expansion are not up to expectations.

One of the outstanding panel industry leaders, maintaining the “Buy” rating is expected to the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 19-21 37.

88/41.

57/51.

07 trillion, the growth rate was 9 respectively.

2% / 9.

8% / 22.

8%.

EPS are 0.

28/0.

31/0.

38 yuan.

Corresponds to 19?

The PE in 21 years is 12/11 / 9X, and the company’s current expectations are lower than comparable companies. According to the results of our 南京龙凤网 absolute and relative estimates, the company’s reasonable variable interval in the coming year is 3.

9?4.

2 yuan.

Maintain “Buy” rating.

Shengnong Development (002299)： High poultry prices drive up performance

Shengnong Development (002299): High poultry prices drive up performance

Company NewsCompany Status Recently, we studied the development of Shengnong, and communicated with the company and industry trends and synchronization.

　　Comment on the high bird prices in 1H19, which drove the company’s performance to rebound significantly: The company recently issued a revised forecast of results, and 1H19 returned to its net profit of 16.

5?
16.

600 million, up 393 before?
396%.

Among them, we predict that Shengnong Food’s contribution performance will approach 2 in 1H19.

5 trillion, the total contribution of the breeding and slaughtering business is about 14 trillion.

For the breeding and slaughtering business, we forecast a slaughter volume of about 2 in 1H19.

200 million birds, and the single bird’s net profit is about 6.

4 yuan.

The 1Q19 / 2Q19 single feather net profit was about 6.

0/6.

7 yuan, at a historically high level.

The rebound in poultry prices is the main reason for the improvement in the company’s performance. According to the Poultry Industry Association, the average price of 1H19 white chickens rose by 21.

At 2%, we judge that the average cost of sales of the company has increased close, and because the price of soybean meal in raw materials has weakened, we judge that the average cost of sales of the company should ignore a slight decline.

　　The epidemic situation will be strengthened, and the company will continue to promote the release of the company ‘s performance. The company said that under the background of the African swine fever epidemic, the gap between protein and protein was enlarged and the substitution consumption of chicken to pork was rising, which is the core reason for the current rise in poultry prices.

Looking forward, we believe that the current pig breeding volume in 2H19 is decreasing, and there is still the possibility of an increase in the summer epidemic. Higher levels of alternative consumption will still support high poultry prices, and the company’s performance this year is expected to be released.

But at the same time, it is worth paying attention to the rising trend of supply, including the increase in the number of ancestor introductions, the increase in the number of breeder stocks, and the potential compulsory moulting factors. Therefore, we estimate that the price of poultry in 2020 will replace the impact of increased consumption and increased supply.Difficult to continue upward but still maintain a high position.

　　Long-term attention to the benign improvement of the company’s operations: We recommend paying attention to some bottom-up efforts of the company, some of which will gradually lead to the improvement of the long-term estimated center: 1) The increase in efficiency brings the cost balance, which includes the decline in feed-to-meat ratio.Transformation and reduction of artificial use, and improvement of feed formula; 2) Breakthrough in breeding technology, we believe that breeding substitution is one of the most excessively profitable production alternatives. The company is currently trying to internalize breeding and change to overcome imported ancestral chicken seedlings.The situation in which Miao maintains production will help increase the long-term net interest rate; 3) The rapid volume of Shengnong Food will continue to increase the proportion of the company’s industrial chain’s mid-to-downstream business and the value space of the industrial chain will also increase.

　　Estimates suggest that we raise our poultry price assumptions for this year and next year, and boots increase our net profit forecast for mothers in 2019/202031.

6% / 74.

7% to 25.

66/25.

8.6 billion yuan.

It is estimated that the valuation will be 13/13 times of 2019/2020, and we maintain the outperform industry rating. At the same time, considering the upward revision of profit forecast and the 南京夜网 company’s performance will enter the release period, the valuation center will sink.

4% to 35 yuan, the target price corresponds to 17/17 times the 2019/2020 valuation, +34.

1% space.

　　Risks Poorer-than-expected rise in bird prices; major epidemic risks; fluctuations in raw material prices.

Hengli Hydraulics (601100)： Hydraulic parts extend from the field of engineering machinery to multiple industries

Hengli Hydraulics (601100): Hydraulic parts extend from the field of engineering machinery to multiple industries

Event: On the evening of January 20, the company issued an announcement of the 2019 performance increase.

The report summarizes that the company expects to realize a net profit of 1.23 billion attributable to shareholders of listed companies?
1.280 billion yuan, a longer growth of about 47.

02%?
52.

99%; Expected net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after realizing expected non-recurring gains and losses?
RMB 1.195 billion, an increase of approximately 51.

32%?
60.

02%.

In the same period last year, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was realized8.

3.7 billion, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deduction.

4.7 billion.

Investment summary: Fourth quarter performance was outstanding.

It is expected that the company will realize net profit attributable to its mother in the fourth quarter of 2019 of about 312.83 million yuan?
362.83 million yuan, an annual increase of 166.

84%?
209.

49%; the central variable was 337.83 million yuan, an increase of 188 year-on-year.

16%, an increase of 37.

15%.

Single-quarter results achieved high growth compared with the previous quarter.

Among them, the annual growth drivers include: (a) Provision for asset impairment losses1 during the same period in 20181.

06 ‰, excluding this part of the impact, the single-quarter net profit growth rate of about 56%; (b) the benefit of the industry of excavator cylinders, non-standard cylinder product structure improvement and optimization, hydraulic component penetration continued to increase.

(C) Exchange gains are expected to increase previously.

The quarter-on-quarter growth is expected to be mainly due to the industry’s peak season in the fourth quarter and the company’s full production schedule.

Outlook: Hydraulic parts extend from the field of engineering machinery to multiple industries.

Pump Valves: The market share of small-digging pump valves is expected to reach about 40%, and then gradually enter foreign customers; the market share of Zhongda-digging pump valves is still climbing, and penetration is expected to increase rapidly in 2020.

Motor: 6?
The production capacity of rotary motors for 50-ton excavators has been steadily released, and it is expected that the production capacity will be smoothly reached by the end of 2019.

Hydraulic parts in the field of non-excavator: The hydraulic parts for aerial work platforms have been supporting a large number of overseas high-end customers. In 2020, domestic sales of domestic customers are expected to increase significantly.

Others: In terms of casting capacity, the company invested in the construction of the second phase of the casting project in March 2018, with a planned investment scale of 500 million yuan and planned production 厦门夜网 capacity of 3 indicators.

Among them, the first line will be put into production in mid-2019, and the second line is expected to be put into production within 2019.

By then, the company’s casting capacity will be increased to 5.

5 nominal.

Maintain “Buy” rating: We expect the company in 2019?
The EPS in 2021 will be 1.

43 yuan, 1.
72 yuan, 2.

07 yuan, corresponding to the current continuous price-earnings ratio of 36 times, 30 times, 25 times, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: gross profit margin declines, new product expansion fails to meet expectations, and raw material prices rise.

Guang Yuyuan (600771)： Funding problem is resolved

Guang Yuyuan (600771): Funding problem is resolved

The report guide company released the third quarter of 2019 report.

Investment points Digesting channel inventory led to improved performance and reduced reported companies’ operating income8.

54 ppm, a decrease of 16 per year.

39%, net profit attributable to mother is 1.

74 million, a decline of 23 per year.

09%, net profit after deduction is 1.

5.6 billion, down 30 a year.

38%, achieving EPS0.

35 yuan, down 45 each year.

31%.

By quarter, Q3 company achieved operating income3.

1.3 billion, down 14 a year.

68%, net profit attributable to mother is 0.

5.7 billion, down 30 a year.

84%, net profit after deduction is 0.

56 trillion, down 32 a year.

45成都桑拿网 %.

The reason for the decline in performance was mainly to reduce the number of shipments to kill the digestion channel inventory, and at the same time, more discounts were used to deliver goods.

Accounts receivable is 14.

7.2 billion, the first decline in two years.

Dating Shanxi SDIC, the funding problem was resolved On July 30, 2019, the company’s controlling shareholder Dongsheng Group and Shanxi SDIC signed a “Cooperation Framework Agreement”, dating Shanxi SDIC as a strategic investor.Japan will have 40 million company shares (8% of the total share capital).

13%) The agreement was transferred to Shanxi SDIC, and the major shareholders’ funding problem was resolved. It is expected that the company’s operations will return to normal in the future.

Earnings forecasts and estimates Due to funding issues affecting the company’s 2019 business plan, we lowered the company’s operating income for 2019-2021 to 19 respectively.

70,000 yuan, 24.

300 million and 30.

31 ppm, an increase of 21 per year.

73%, 23.

31% and 24.

74%; net profit attributable to parent company is 3.

710,000 yuan, 4.

7.8 billion and 6.

14 ppm with a ten-year increase of -0.

96%, 28.

88% and 28.

62%; corresponding EPS is 1.

05 yuan, 1.

35 yuan and 1.

74 yuan, corresponding to the current PE is 15 times, 12 times and 9 times, maintaining the “overweight” level. Risks suggest high selling expense ratios.

成都桑拿网Accounts receivable cannot be recovered.

Subsequent cooperation with Shanxi Guotou was not smooth

Net inflow was 105.

78 billion yuan last week to pick up A shares “cheap”

Net inflow was 105.

78 billion yuan last week to pick up A shares “cheap”

Du Yumeng, a reporter from our newspaper, raised 10.6 billion funds to raise A-shares last week. Du Yumeng, a reporter of the newspaper, entered June. The funds showed a strong “pick-up” mentality and have flowed into the A-share market for four consecutive days.

　　Data show that from June 3 to June 6 last week, Northbound funds realized a net inflow of funds 武汉夜生活网 of 105.

7.8 billion.

Among them, only on June 3, the net inflow of funds to the north reached 46.

9.2 billion yuan.

　　Pacific Securities strategy analyst Jin Dalai said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the overall situation since June has shown a gradual repair of the confidence in the replacement of A shares.

This mainly benefits from two aspects: the large-cap blue chip stocks represented by the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 are estimated to be at historically low levels with only a certain allocation value; the benefits are due to the weakening of the US economy as shown by the stabilization of the RMB exchange rate and the inversion of US debt yields.

　　The reporter combed and found that in May, the net amount of funds to go north was over 459.

2.3 billion.

In the first four months, the capital flow in and out of the north was: 664 in January.

1.5 billion yuan, a net capital inflow of 665 in February.

2.7 billion yuan, a net capital inflow of 142 in March.

900 million yuan, a net decrease of 69 in April.

8.5 billion yuan.

Overall, since the beginning of this year, the funds for the north have still reached 1188.

A net inflow of $ 7.2 billion.

　　Jindalai analysis said that in early June, the A-share market still needs to digest the factors of the previous period of change. However, the conversion of the A-shares into the rich for the first time and the liquidity hedging expectation brought by the tightening of funds in the middle of the year may estimate the market’s repair.Bringing space, more market opportunities will be reflected in late June.

　　According to the arrangement of FTSE Russell, from June 2019, China A-shares will officially start the gradual replacement of its flagship index FTSE Global Equity Index Series (hereinafter referred to as FTSE GEIS). The first replacement factor is 5%.It became effective after the market opened on June 24. The first batch of A-share targets totaled 1097 A-shares.

　　”For the first time, A-shares’ ‘rich’ is expected to bring about a passive inflow of about 20 billion yuan.

“Jindalai believes that the gradual increase of funds into the market gradually constitutes support for the market’s capital, and it is expected that the expected demand on the market will bring a significant boost.

　　Fei Xiaoping, a strategic analyst at Dongguan Securities, said that, 无锡夜网 overall, although the external environment and the weak economic trend have not changed, the positive signal on the policy side has increased, but it has also increased the rate of countercyclical changes, and under the continuous advancement of the internationalization of A shares, Help to alleviate changes in the flow of northbound funds.

Shiji Information (002153) Quarterly Report Comment： Rapid Growth of Third Quarter Revenue

Shiji Information (002153) Quarterly Report Comment: Rapid Growth of Third Quarter Revenue
Matters: The company announced the 2019 third quarter report, and the first three quarters of 2019 achieved operating income24.3.7 billion, an annual increase of 22.43%, net profit attributable to mothers3.2.2 billion, an annual increase of 1.83%, EPS is 0.30 yuan. Ping An’s perspective: The company’s third-quarter revenue achieved rapid growth: According to the company’s announcement, the company’s revenue in the first three quarters of 2019 reached 24.37 ppm, an increase of 22 in ten years.43%.By quarter, the company achieved revenue 9 in the third quarter alone.20,000 yuan, an annual increase of 25.27%, the company’s single quarter revenue grew rapidly, the growth rate increased by 4 in the first half.51 units.The company achieved net profit attributable to mothers in the first three quarters of 20193.2.2 billion, an annual increase of 1.83%, net profit attributable to mother continued to grow steadily. The company’s gross profit margin and period expense ratio increased to the smallest margin: the company’s gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2019 was 47.29%, an increase of one year.2 units.The company’s expenses during the first three quarters of 201931.06%, increase by 0 every year.77 units, of which the sales expense ratio increases by 1 every year.The 33 single ones were mainly due to the consolidation of the sales expenses of Hisense Smart Business and the increased expenses of the company’s overseas subsidiaries; the management expense ratio (management expenses including research and development expenses) decreased by 3.The 94 exceptions were mainly due to the company’s continued strengthening of R & D expansion, which increased the increase in R & D expenses76.61%, the proportion of revenue from R & D expenses increases by 2 every year.96 units; each decrease in financial expense ratio.The 51 singles were mainly due to the overlapping interest income reported by the merged company and the increase in exchange gains. The future development of the company’s “internationalization + platformization” strategy can be expected: At present, the company is in the process of changing from a software supplier to an application service platform operator (“internationalization + platformization”).In terms of internationalization strategy, the company’s Infrasys Cloud platform POS system has a good momentum of development. On the basis of successfully becoming the standards of Intercontinental, Hyatt, Peninsula and other hotel groups, many international hotel groups have entered the pilot test stage.As of the end of June this year, the total number of hotel and restaurant users in Infrasys Cloud has exceeded 1,000.After years of large-scale R & D investment, the company’s new generation hotel information management system platform has made substantial progress. At present, the development and preparations for online launch are progressing as planned.In terms of platform strategy, as of the first half of this year, Changlian’s direct-connected output exceeded 4.1 million, an increase of approximately 36% per year; the total amount of payment business transactions between company customers and Alipay and WeChat direct-connected services was approximately US $ 73.5 billion, an increase of approximately 48%To maintain a rapid growth trend.The future development of the company’s “internationalization + platformization” strategy is worth looking forward to. Profit forecast and investment recommendations: We maintain our company’s profit forecast for 2019-2021, with EPS being 0.50 yuan, 0.60 yuan, 0.73 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of PE on October 29 are about 75.2. 62.8, 51.4 times.The company is a leading information technology company in the domestic consumer industry and a leading domestic software supplier across the hotel, catering and retail industries.The company is currently in the process of transforming from a software supplier to an application service platform operator (“internationalization + platformization”). In terms of internationalization, the new generation of cloud platform PMS will open up the global market growth space for the company;In terms of cooperation between the company, hotels and channels, the company’s payment business traffic continued to grow at a high speed, and traffic distribution is expected to become a new growth point for the company’s performance in the future.We are optimistic about the company’s future development and maintain a “recommended” rating on the company. Risk reminders: (1) The growth rate of the company’s consumer industry informatization business is less than expected: the company’s main business is affected by the prosperity of downstream 北京桑拿洗浴保健 consumer industries such as hotels, restaurants, and retail.If it meets the expectations, the company ‘s hotel, catering, and retail information management system business will grow at a lower rate than expected; (2) The company ‘s internationalization progress is not up to expectations: the new generation of cloud PMS products is the company ‘s internationalizationThe essential.If the company’s new-generation cloud PMS product development progress is not up to expectations, or the promotion progress in overseas markets is not up to expectations, there is a risk that the company’s international transformation is not up to expectations; (3) the company’s platformization progress is not up to expectations: In the short term, the total amount of payment business transactions of corporate customers directly connected with Alipay and WeChat maintained a rapid growth trend.However, if the company’s promotion progress of customers’ direct-based technology-based payment platforms is gradually expected in the future, there will be a risk that the growth rate of the company’s payment platform transactions will fall short of expectations, and the company’s platform transformation will have the risk of falling short of expectations.

Chuantou Energy (600674) Company dynamic comment： The decline in electricity prices caused the issuance of convertible bonds on the Yalong River Hydropower

Chuantou Energy (600674) Company dynamic comment: The decline in electricity prices caused the issuance of convertible bonds on the Yalong River Hydropower

Event: The company disclosed three quarterly reports, and the company’s revenue for the first three quarters was 5.

78 ppm, a decrease of 3 per year.

8%; net profit attributable to mother 26.

300 million, down 5 every year.

08%.

In the first half of the year, the water in Tianhe Bay was dry, and the company’s revenue decreased by half in the first three quarters.

8% to 5.

800 million.

1) The revenue of the hydropower sector is decreasing by 6 every year.

7% to 4.

800 million, the net profit of the sector increased by 6 every year.

0% to 1.

300 million.

Due to the dry water in Tianwanhe Cascade Power Plant in the first half of the year, the company generated 23 hydropower in the first three quarters.

8.4 billion kWh, a reduction of 3 per year.

3%.

The situation improved in the third quarter, with hydropower generation in a single quarter.

3.1 billion kilowatt-hours, an annual increase of 14.

9%.

Since Jiayang Power entered the liquidation process in December 2018, it has turned a deficit for one year, so the net profit of the overall power sector increased by 6.

0% to 1.

3.1 billion yuan.

2) The revenue of the railway automation segment increased rapidly in the third quarter, with net profit increasing by 32 per year.

0% to 1,724.

50,000 yuan: The company’s railway automation segment is operated by Jiaotong University.

In the first three quarters of the past three quarters, the revenue of Shanghai Jiaotong University increased by ten years.

6% to 9,660.

10,000 yuan, net profit increases by 32 each year.

0% to 1,724.

50,000 yuan; the third quarter revenue increased by 56.

4% to 4,593.

80,000 yuan, net profit increases by 126 every year.

8% to 499.

30,000 yuan.

Yalong River Hydropower Performance in the First Three Quarters 8.
.

7%, the company’s investment income temporarily decreased by 5.

8% to 26.
800 million yuan.
1) Yalong River Hydro’s net profit in the first three quarters dropped by 8.

7%, tax-included electricity price 7.

5%: Yalong River Hydropower’s power generation in the first three quarters has continued to increase2.

9% to 579.

700 million kilowatt-hours, each increase of 2 electricity.

9% to 576.

800 million kilowatt-hours, the ratio of on-grid tariffs including taxes decreased by 7.

5% to 0.

254 yuan / kWh.

Yalong River Hydropower’s revenue in the first three quarters fell by 4% year-on-year.

9% to 146.

500 million US dollars, net profit from scratch8.

7% to 53.

80,000 yuan, contributing 25 equity investment income.

800 million.

2) Guodu Daduhe did not contribute investment income in the same period last year, contributing 84.13 million yuan in the first three quarters of this year: Guodian Daduhe’s power generation increased in the first three quarters.

0% to 333.

500 million kilowatt-hours, revenue growth in three years.

7% to 66.

8 ppm, net profit is 22 per extension.

3% to 8.

400000000.

Guodian Daduhe’s recognized sale of financial assets at cost before November 2018 is recognized as investment income only when dividends are paid, while Guodian Daduhe did not receive dividends in the first three quarters of last year, so investment income can be recognized.

Since then, it has been measured according to the equity method of long-term equity investment, and contributed 84.13 million yuan of equity method investment income in the first three quarters of this year.

The Yalong River Hydropower projects currently under construction are mainly two estuaries (3 million kilowatts) and Yangfanggou (1.5 million kilowatts). The first unit is expected to be commissioned in 2021, with moderate growth.

The Yalong River Hydropower, which the company holds a 48% stake in, is the only hydropower development entity in the Yalong River Basin, which has a development installed capacity of about 30 million kilowatts.

Developable installed capacity includes 10 upstream power stations, 7 mid-stream 天津夜网 power stations (two river mouths, first root, first root, Yangfanggou, Kara, Lenggu, Mendigou), and 5 downstream power stations (Jinping,Jinping II, Guandi, Tongzilin, Ertan Hydropower Station) By the end of 2018, downstream power plants have been developed (upstream and midstream are currently not in operation), and the total installed capacity of the Yalong River Hydropower is 14.7 million kilowatts.

At present, the two units at Yanghegou, Yangfanggou, have a total installed capacity of 4.5 million kilowatts. The first unit is expected to start production in 2021.

The company’s issuance of convertible bonds has been approved by the CSRC, and all the funds raised were used for the construction of the Yangjiagou Hydropower Station on the Yalong River.

The company is expected to raise US $ 4 billion this time. 合肥夜网 After deducting the issuance costs, all the funds will be used to increase the capital of Yalong River Hydropower (another shareholder, SDIC Power promises to increase the capital synchronously according to the shareholding ratio), specifically for Yanglong Hydropower YangConstruction of Fangou Hydropower Project.

All the convertible corporate bonds issued this time are preferentially placed to the original shareholders of the company, and the bonds include redemption and resale terms.

The initial conversion price of the convertible bonds shall not be lower than the average price of the company’s stock trading twenty trading days before the announcement date of the prospectus and the average price of the company’s stock trading the previous trading day.

When the convertible bonds continue to exist, when the closing price of the company’s shares in at least ten trading days of any twenty consecutive trading days is lower than 85% of the current conversion price, the conversion price proposed by the company’s board of directors will be revised downward andSubmitted to the company’s shareholders meeting to vote.

Underestimate hydropower standards and maintain the recommended level.

Expected company 2019?
EPS will remain at 0 in 2021.

77 yuan, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 12.

6 times.

The company’s current market net interest rate is 1.
64 times.

The 2018 dividend corresponds to the current sustainable segmentation alternative 2.
8%.

The company’s 4 billion convertible bonds were reviewed and approved by the CSRC, and the development of the Yalong River Hydropower Project progressed smoothly.

Risk warning: the incoming water situation may be lower than expected; the on-grid electricity price of hydropower projects may drop unexpectedly.

Changchun High-tech (000661)： Jinsai Pharmaceutical’s high-growth vaccine business will improve in the second half of the year

Changchun High-tech (000661): Jinsai Pharmaceutical’s high-growth vaccine business will improve in the second half of the year
Changchun Gaoxin’s 19H1 revenue, net income attributable to mothers and deducted non-profit increased by 23 respectively.4%, 32.6% and 39.5%, continued high growth. Jinsai Pharmaceutical’s revenue and profit were 21 respectively.400 million and 8.200 million, each year +41.7% and 47.7%, maintained a rapid growth trend, basically in line with our expectations.We predict 2019?The EPS in 2021 will be 9.23/12.06/15.35 yuan. The company’s two-wheel drive recombination of the company’s recombinant protein, Jinsai Pharmaceutical’s acquisition of minority equity has been smoothly advanced, and continues to be highly recommended. Changchun Gaoxin’s 19H1 revenue, net income attributable to mothers and deducted non-profit increased by 23 respectively.4%, 32.6% and 39.5%, continued high growth.The gross profit margin dropped slightly by 0 vertically.For six units, the sales rate and research and development rate decreased by 1.2 and 1.For 3 units, the management fee rate is flat every year. From a single quarter point of view, in 19Q2 revenue, the net profit attributable to mothers and non-attributed mothers were changed to -5 respectively.9%, +7.0% and +8.1%, the growth rate does not seem to be high, but the first is that the real estate business in 18Q2 has contributed normally., 100 grams of biological vaccine business was affected by technological transformation. In 19H1, Kinsey Pharmaceutical maintained rapid growth.In 19H1, Kinsey Pharmaceutical’s revenue and profit were 21 respectively.400 million and 8.200 million, twice as much as +41.7% and +47.7%, maintained a rapid growth trend, basically in line with our expectations.　　The company organizes the construction and implementation of the product line gradient structure system, and cultivates growth products and scale products. In 19H1, 100 grams of performance fluctuated, and new production capacity and R & D progressed smoothly. In 19H1, Changchun 100 grams revenue and profit were 4 respectively.100 million and 95.68 million, respectively twice -29.2% and 杭州桑拿养生会所 -30.8%, due to factors such as process improvements in 2018, insufficient product sales during the first half of 2019, resulting in a decrease in shipments. The batches of chickenpox vaccine 18Q3 / 18Q4 / 19Q1 / 19Q2 were 230 respectively.80,000 / 51.60,000 / 51.30,000 / 162.0 million.Because 18 years of technological transformation affected production, 18Q4 and 19Q1 batches of replacements were issued, resulting in insufficient sales of 19Q2 products. The 19Q2 batch issuance has improved significantly. We expect the 19Q3 vaccine performance to improve significantly. Real estate business reserves are sufficient. 19H1 real estate business income and profit were 5 respectively.4 billion and 1.200 million, each year +37.8% and +89.8%. Product development at the end of 19H1 2.7.4 billion, an increase of about 60 million compared with the end of the fourth quarter of last year, and sufficient business reserves. Profit forecast and rating. Assume that the supporting financing is completed at the price of 300 yuan per share, regardless of the conversion of debt to equity, and Jinsai Pharmaceutical has completely consolidated the balance sheet in 19 years. We predict that 2019?Net profit growth in 2021, 86% / 31% / 27%, EPS is 9 respectively.23/12.06/15.35 yuan, corresponding to 19pe estimate 37x, the company’s recombinant protein two-wheel drive molding, Jinsai Pharmaceutical’s minority equity acquisition smoothly progressed, continue to strongly recommend　　Risk warning: product production and sales fall short of expectations, and restructuring progress falls short of expectations.

Makihara (002714)： September average price was beautiful and performance exceeded expectations

Makihara (002714): September average price was beautiful and performance exceeded expectations

The average price in September was beautiful, and the number of listings increased month-on-month, proving that the company’s death rate has dropped significantly.

In the third and third quarter alone, the net profit attributable to mothers was about 1.5 billion, exceeding expectations. In the future, costs will be reduced, and the number of listings will be increased.

We continue to strongly recommend Makihara Shares.

Event: On October 8th, the company released the first three quarter results forecast, and the report is expected to achieve net profit attributable to mothers of 1.3 to 1.5 billion, an increase of 271.

23% -328.

34%, of which net profit attributable to mothers was achieved in the third quarter.

5-16 years old.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 238 in ten years.

12% -284.

75%,都市夜网 performance exceeded expectations.

In addition, the company also released a sales briefing, selling hogs 72 in September.

520,000 heads, a slight increase from the previous month, with an average sales price of 26.

17 yuan / kg, an increase of 29 from the previous month.

11%.

The pig farm renovation is gradually completed, and the future cost advantage is expected to gradually expand. According to the profit interval released by the company, we have calculated that the full cost of Q3 pigs is 14.
.

3-15.

Between 4 yuan / kg, the increase in cost according to Q2 is mainly due to the decline in the amount of sales, which significantly increases the cost amortization, and the cost of production conversion will not change significantly.

We believe that after the company’s pig farm renovation is completed, the farm 北京桑拿洗浴保健 environment gradually stabilizes and the new production process is smoother, the overall operating efficiency of the farm, the production performance of sows and the growth performance of pigs will be significantly improved, and the slaughterThe increase in volume will bring about the dilution of expenses and labor costs. It is expected that the cost will begin to decline at the latest in the fourth quarter, and the cost may return to the level before the non-pesticidal disease in the second half of next year, at 11.

5 yuan to 11.

Between 7 yuan, the cost advantage is expected to continue to expand.

Q3 performance exceeded expectations, profits began to accelerate release Q3 profits exceeded expectations and cashed in, future performance will be more predictable.

In the context of the current rapid rise in pig prices and the significant improvement in corporate epidemic prevention capabilities, the company’s profits have begun to accelerate. The third quarter is only the initial stage. The results will continue to rise in the next 6-8 quarters, continuing to refresh historical extremes.

It is worth mentioning that in the channel of rising pig prices, the company can sell piglets in large quantities, bringing greater flexibility to the amount of slaughter, which is a unique advantage of Makihara.

Currently, the company weaned the piglets (6.

5 kg to 7 kg) sales price is about 1,500 yuan, sow pigs (can be left as breeding pigs) sales price is about 3,000 yuan, the cost is only 200 yuan.

In the future, the price of piglets will continue to innovate following the rise in pig prices, which will bring great profit elasticity to Makihara, who has too many sows.

Earnings forecast and estimation: We expect the company’s sales volume to be 1050/2000/30 million heads in 2019-2021, with net profit attributable to mothers52.

1/300.

3/403.

9 trillion, EPS is 2.

41/13.

89/18.

68 yuan, giving 7-9 times PE in 2020, with a target price of 97.

23-125.

01 yuan, with 38%-77% growth space, maintain “strongly recommended-A” investment rating.

Risk reminders: sudden large-scale uncontrollable epidemic disease, major food safety incidents, macroeconomic systemic risks, extreme climate disasters leading to large-scale reduction of crop production and food prices, and listed companies infected with African swine fever.