Tongwei (600438): High-performance growth in the second half of the performance is expected to continue to release capacity
The company released the semi-annual report for the year 19, and the H1 revenue in the year 19 was 161.2.4 billion, an annual increase of 29.4%, net profit attributable to mother 14.51 ‰, an increase of 58% in ten years, net of non-attributed net profit13.86 ‰, an increase of 55 in ten years.7%.Q2 achieved revenue of 99.55 ppm, an increase of 37 in ten years.5%, an increase of 61 from the previous month.4%, achieving net profit attributable to mother 9.600 million, +60 in ten years.5%, +95.7%.The company’s performance is in line with the performance performance forecast, high-quality production capacity has been continuously released, and the interim results have grown rapidly. New solar cell projects have reached production one after another, and the scale advantage has been consolidated. The first half-year report shows that the company’s photovoltaic cell sales are about 6GW, + 97% per year, and the capacity utilization rate is> 110%.According to research data, the company’s non-silicon cost for single / polycrystalline batteries is zero.2-0.25 yuan / W and presented a downward trend, far below the industry level.According to PVinfolink data, the current stock price of single crystal PERC batteries is zero.93 yuan / W, approaching the cash cost of new capacity in the industry, old capacity, and restructuring capacity are exiting.From a single quarter point of view, the price of pure battery may affect the third quarter profit, which may be under pressure from the previous month. However, driven by the reasonable price difference of single polycrystalline battery, the price of single crystal PERC battery is expected to return to 1 yuan / W, which will bring about improvement in battery business profit. High-purity crystalline silicon has steadily expanded its leading edge, and its production capacity is expected to continue to be released in the second half of the year. According to the company’s semi-annual report, the company’s silicon sales in the first half of the year2.28 per year, at least +162.85%, the production cost of the new production line has reached less than 4 million tons / ton, and the 杭州桑拿网 production cost of the old production capacity is expected to continue to decrease by 10% compared to 18 years.At present, the price of silicon materials has fallen below the cost line of most manufacturers, and the subsequent prices will gradually stabilize. In the first half of the year, the new production capacity of Baotou and Leshan will be released by about 20%.The old factory in Leshan has full horsepower. We expect that the company’s silicon material capacity will be fully released in the second half of the year, and the gradual expansion is expected to reach 6.5Cobalt and silicon materials business will contribute more profits to the company in the second half of the year. The 2019-2021 results are expected to be 0.81 yuan / share, 1.01 yuan / share, 1.Driven by 27 yuan / share of photovoltaic and agricultural and animal husbandry businesses, the company’s net profit attributable to its mother is expected to be 31 in 19-21.27/39.12/49.150,000 yuan, EPS is 0.81/1.01/1.27 yuan / share, the closing price on August 14 corresponds to PE of 15.89X / 12.7X / 10.11X.The company has obvious cost advantages in the field of photovoltaics. The expansion of production capacity consolidates the scale of the leader. The leading edge is expected to expand. The company’s 19-year photovoltaic business estimates 20 times PE, and the agricultural sector 22 times PE, corresponding to a reasonable value of 16.46 yuan / share, continue to give a Buy rating. Risk reminders: PV installations are less than expected, and the price of the industrial chain has fallen sharply; risks of changes in internal policy environments and risks of changes in international trade conditions; and battery technology updates have made the company risk of backward production capacity.